With Biden's announced mandate affecting companies with 100 or more employees, approximately 80 million private sector workers in the U.S. fall under the legislation. Additional mandates for healthcare workers, educators, federal employees, and contractors will also increase the number of protected employees, potentially reaching 100 million according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
The new requirements are expected to apply to around 25 million unvaccinated individuals, with the number of vaccinated individuals increasing by March of the following year. Goldman Sachs' prediction is based on surveys and reports of experiences with vaccine mandates in France.
Despite the anticipated impact, some companies hold back from requiring vaccines due to a fear of losing valuable talent in a tight labor market. However, leading business groups generally support the rule, viewing it as a mechanism to boost immunization rates, reduce health expenses, and create equitable competitive conditions for businesses of similar sizes.
Imposing vaccine requirements creates concern among employees about losing their jobs, especially those in the unvaccinated segment. Some surveys suggest that half of the unvaccinated workforce might quit if their employer mandates vaccination. The rule allows employers to test unvaccinated workers weekly for COVID-19, making regular tests a potential alternative to vaccination.
The option of regular tests instead of vaccinations may help maintain employment levels and provide opportunities for unvaccinated employees to find jobs in smaller businesses not subject to the regulations. According to Goldman Sachs, the new measures should bolster employment and the economy, even if some workers choose to leave the workforce! Instead of vaccinating.
Assuming the COVID-19 vaccine receives approval for children aged 5 to 11 in November, Goldman Sachs estimates that 82% of the overall population and 90% of adults will have received at least one dose by mid-2022. As of September 9, approximately 177.4 million people (53.4% of the U.S. population) were fully vaccinated, while 208.3 million people (62.7% of the population) had received at least the first dose of the vaccine.
Sources:
- edition.cnn.com
- archives.federalregister.gov
- pewresearch.org
- hbr.org
- pbs.org
