Gold may potentially rebound to attractive buying levels this week according to the weekly forecast for XAUUSD, the gold-dollar pair.
The financial landscape has seen a significant shift following the pause in tariffs by President Trump, with Goldman Sachs revising its recession forecast. This development, coupled with the ongoing bullish trend in the XAUUSD market, has sparked anticipation for gold prices to continue towards $3440.
The current move in the gold market is influenced by external liquidity and aligns with the weekly forecast discussions. The daily timeframe supply zone for gold stands at $3431-$3451, but buys are strongly preferred over sells this week, with the major buying level for gold at the 4h FVG of $3340-3310. Selling can be expected at the same 4h FVG level, but it's advisable to wait for the daily timeframe selling zone ($3431-$3451) before making significant sell decisions.
There's a possibility of a test of the previous All-Time High (ATH) of $3500 in the coming days, with a projected move of 200-500+ points in gold expected this week.
In the coming week, the key U.S. economic events – CPI, PPI, retail sales, and unemployment claims – are expected to have a significant influence on the XAUUSD pair and gold prices. Generally, softer or weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data tend to support gold prices, while stronger data may weigh on gold.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a mixed July performance, missing headline estimates but with core CPI rising above 3% YoY. This softer headline CPI boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, fueling gold rallies around $3,350 to $3,360 due to anticipated looser monetary policy. A subdued Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected, further strengthening the case for a dovish Fed stance and increasing bets on interest rate cuts, which support gold prices.
Retail sales data will be closely watched, as they indicate consumer demand and economic health. Weaker retail sales could add to the dovish Fed narrative, supporting gold, while stronger sales might weigh against gold by implying stronger economic conditions.
Unemployment Claims will also be a crucial factor. Higher or rising claims indicate labor market weakness, bolstering expectations for Fed easing and supporting gold. Conversely, continued low claims may reduce gold’s appeal.
Overall, expectations of a Fed rate cut (possibly starting in September) and easing monetary policy are the main drivers for gold’s near-term bullish outlook. Gold prices are trading around $3,338 currently, with technical indicators suggesting potential to rise towards $3,425 and $3,500 if bullish momentum continues.
In conclusion, if CPI, PPI, retail sales, and unemployment claims show softness or mixed signals, gold (XAUUSD) may rally due to rising bets on Fed easing, potentially pushing gold above $3,375 and higher targets near $3,425-3,500. Stronger-than-expected data could suppress gold prices, holding or pushing them below current levels near $3,338.
The 4h FVG of gold serves as a support level at $3340-3310, offering a potential buying opportunity. Geopolitical uncertainty and comments from Fed-related figures also play a role, but the market's keen focus is on inflation and employment metrics that guide Fed decisions.
- The upcoming week may see a surge in the price of gold, with technical indicators suggesting a potential move towards $3,425 and $3,500, as investors take positions based on market expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- The ongoing bullish trend in the gold market could be influenced by a test of the Tron-based decentralized exchange (DEX) platforms for trading gold tokens, given the ongoing liquidity in the crypto market and the bullish sentiment around Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) related to digital gold.
- With the sports world gradually resuming operations, some fans might see an investment opportunity in gold, viewing it as a safe haven and potential source of passive income with the ongoing interest in sports tokens and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) tied to sports events.
