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Dive into our research and get the lowdown on what's shaping the global economy:
Economic Growth: The Slippery Slope
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) isn't pulling any punches – they're forecasting growth at only 1.8% in 2025, marking a significant drop of 0.9 percentage points since early 2025. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) offers a slightly rosier outlook, predicting 2.3% growth. However, both figures are below the historically agreed-upon 2.5% threshold typically associated with recession.
Policy-wise, we're wading through treacherous waters as trade disputes and financial disturbances muddy the waters. Effective tariff rates are reaching record highs, and policy uncertainty is soaring to unprecedented levels this century.
Trade and Market Volatility: The Rollercoaster Ride
Riding the economic rollercoaster, matters of trade are sending shockwaves through supply chains, delaying investments, and prompting hiring cuts. UNCTAD cautions us about the looming threat of a "geoeconomic fragmentation" that can exacerbate downturns.
As for the stock market, the "fear index" (VIX), a measure of investor anxiety, recently hit its third-highest level ever – surpassed only by the 2008 and 2020 economic crises.
Structural Challenges: Closing the Gap
Let's talk productivity. The IMF is emphasizing the need to tackle skill mismatches and integrate migrants/refugees to revive growth. Moreover, UNCTAD encourages regional trade integration and South-South cooperation to counterbalance the global fragmentation.
At this crossroads, trade policy stability and multilateral cooperation are increasingly recognized as crucial elements to ward off prolonged economic stagnation.
- Politics worldwide are heavily influenced by economic conditions, with the forecasted growth of only 1.8% in 2025 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising concerns about a potential recession, as the growth rate is below the historically agreed-upon 2.5% threshold.
- Methodological research suggests that immigration and the integration of migrants/refugees can help close productivity gaps and revive growth, according to the IMF, as a means to tackle skill mismatches.
- The ongoing trade disputes and financial disturbances are contributing to policy uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels this century, resulting in effective tariff rates at record highs.
- In the realm of general-news, the stock market has seen a surge in investor anxiety, with the "fear index" (VIX) recently hitting its third-highest level ever – surpassed only by the 2008 and 2020 economic crises.
- World trends indicate a growing emphasis on trade policy stability and multilateral cooperation as crucial elements to prevent prolonged economic stagnation, with regional trade integration and South-South cooperation being encouraged by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) as a counterbalance to global fragmentation.
