Global heat records until November: 2023 is the hottest year since records began

2023:Set to Scorch Globally with Record Heat Waves

Looks like 2023 is gearing up to set the thermometer soaring, according to the EU's climate change service, Copernicus. Copernicus Deputy Director, Samantha Burgess, spilled the beans about the unusually high global November temperatures, hinting that 2023 could snatch the title of the warmest year on record.

Two sweltering days in a row saw the global average temperature outstripping the pre-industrial seasonal average temperature by a staggering two degrees. This mind-boggling figure is set to bolster the climate negotiators at the ongoing COP28 World Climate Conference in Dubai, tugging at their heartstrings as they deliberate over climate change.

Global Warming's Painful Repercussions

Copernicus and the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) share a common prognosis: 2023 is staring down the barrel of becoming the hottest year ever recorded since temperature logs began. The WMO's latest preliminary climate status report corroborates that the global average temperature had already surpassed the pre-industrial timeline by a whopping 1.4 degrees Celsius by October's end.

The gap between our current temperatures and 2016 and 2020 – the previous record-breaking years – is so colossal that November and December are battling an uphill battle to crack the heat record. If the COP28 delegates plan on sticking to the pledge made at the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, aimed at limiting global warming, the escalating greenhouse gas emissions could see the Earth inching towards a disastrous warming of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees by 2100.

Deciphering the Heat Wave Puzzle

Numerous factors contribute to 2023's record-breaking heat waves, including:

1. Cloud Cover Conundrum: An unexpected dip in low-altitude cloud cover, most notably in mid-latitude and tropical regions, has led to a decline in Earth's albedo (the amount of sunlight it reflects back into space), exacerbating the global temperature rise.
2. El Niño and Aerosol Wane: The infamous El Niño weather phenomenon and the decline in aerosols, which can cool the Earth by scattering sunlight, have both played a part in the global temperature surge. The El Niño event, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures, and the dip in aerosols have both contributed to the temperature rise.
3. Biosphere Breakdown: Disruptions in the global biosphere, like the disappearance of the terrestrial carbon sink in 2023, have been linked to significant reductions in cloud cover. International phenomena such as Canadian wildfires and the astonishing Amazon drought have been speculated to be responsible for these disruptions.

While various parts of the globe have been roasted by the relentless onslaught of heatwaves, Germany has experienced a streak of sweltering heatwaves, pushing the global averages above the pre-industrial threshold. The alarming reality of climate change has never been more apparent.

A Closer Look at the Climate Change Culprits

Upon closer inspection, several factors contribute to the 2023 heatwave, including:

1. Greenhouse Gases: The substantial increase in greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, due to human activities, serve to trap heat in the atmosphere and prevent it from escaping. This trapping of heat intensifies the greenhouse effect, contributing to global warming.
2. Cloud Cover Changes: A decrease in low-altitude cloud cover in strategic regions, impairs Earth's albedo (the amount of sunlight it reflects back into space), allowing more solar radiation to be absorbed. This in turn contributes to warming.
3. Natural Climate Variability: While El Niño tends to boost global temperatures, and La Niña generally dampens them, the current record heat wave is occurring despite the end of a significant El Niño event in June 2024 and the onset of a La Niña event in January 2025. The persistence of record warmth hints that human-induced climate change is driving these temperature increases, with natural climate variability playing a secondary role.
4. Sulfur Pollution Reduction: The reduction in sulfur pollution from shipping regulations, which previously reflected sunlight away from Earth and cooled it, now allows more solar radiation to be absorbed, contributing to the current heat wave. Unfortunately, the benefits of cleaner skies have come at the expense of higher temperatures.

These factors collectively indicate that the record-breaking global heat wave in 2023 is primarily driven by human-induced climate change, with natural climate variability playing a secondary role.