2023 on Pace to Shatter Global Heat Records: A Troubling Prediction
The year 2023 is poised to break history with its heat, according to the EU's climate change service, Copernicus. Samantha Burgess, Copernicus Deputy Director, recently announced that the global November temperatures are exceptionally high, suggesting 2023 will likely be the warmest year on record.
Two days witnessed the global average temperature surpassing the pre-industrial seasonal average temperature by over two degrees, a concerning figure that will likely strengthen the negotiating stances at the ongoing COP28 World Climate Conference in Dubai.
Global Climate Change's Painful Impact
Copernicus and the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) share a similar conclusion: 2023 is set to be the hottest year since temperature records began. The WMO's latest preliminary climate status report affirmed that the global average temperature had already surpassed the pre-industrial level by around 1.4 degrees Celsius by October's end.
The chasm between current temperatures and the previous record-breaking years of 2016 and 2020 is so vast that the months of November and December hold no chance of changing the heat record. If COP28 delegates aim to stick to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement committed to limiting global warming, the escalation in greenhouse gases could see the Earth heading towards a disastrous warming of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees by 2100.
Understanding the Heat Wave Factors
Many elements contribute to 2023's extreme temperatures, including:
- Unexpected Cloud Cover Dynamics: A significant decrease in low-altitude cloud cover, particularly in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, has led to a decline in Earth's albedo (the percentage of sunlight reflected back into space), exacerbating the global temperature rise.
- El Niño and Aerosol Reductions: The infamous El Niño weather phenomenon and the decrease in air pollution have also influenced the global temperature surge. El Niño—warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures—and the decline in aerosols, which can cool the Earth, have contributed to the rising temperatures.
- Biospheric Breakdown: Disruptions in global biospheric functionality, such as the disappearance of the terrestrial carbon sink in 2023, have tied to significant reductions in cloud cover, further fueling the temperature rise. International events like Canadian wildfires and the record-breaking Amazon drought are suspected to have induced these disruptions.
While many parts of the world have been heated by the relentless surge in temperatures, Germany has experienced multiple heatwave episodes, taking the global average temperatures above the pre-industrial threshold. The unstoppable force of climate change has become painfully clear.
