A Critique: Friedrich Merz Straddles Both Sides in China Policing
Merz Demonstrates Lack of Backbone in Addressing China Issues - Germany's Friedrich Merz demonstrates a lack of backbone in confronting China's political aggression.
By Bernd Ziesemer* + - 2 Min*
The coalition agreement between the new German government dedicates a paltry 11 lines out of 146 pages to the matter of China. Ambitions include tackling "humanity's challenges" in harmony with Xi Jinping, adhering to the "rules," continuing a "de-risking" initiative, and collaborating with EU states and other Western partners. This evokes an image of "business as usual," nary deviating from the lukewarm stance of Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel. Only a solitary sentence hints at a definite position: "Elements of systemic rivalry" have surfaced due to China's actions.
Neither the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz nor his Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, or Economic Minister, Katherina Reiche, possess deep China expertise. Consequently, it proves challenging to fill the breach in the contract's primitiveness with practical politics. In contrast to Ukraine policy, it's unclear how the new government will distinguish itself from its predecessor, leading to a risk of lobbyists from German industry and Chinese state-owned enterprises exerting their influence.
Political analyst Andreas Fulda characterizes the policy of Merkel and Scholz towards the People's Republic as having been "outsourced" to large companies like BASF or VW. With the new government's self-proclaimed "business-friendly" approach, there's danger the flawed strategy could persist.
China's Test for Friedrich Merz
Over the next four years, the Merz administration will likely face steeper challenges related to China. In the near term, a possible trade war between the US and China could entangle Germany, posing a significant risk to its economic interests due to the influx of Chinese exports and lower prices. Additionally, China's increasing support for Russia's aggression in Ukraine may necessitate secondary sanctions on Chinese companies. Lastly, Germany must prepare for increasing tensions around Taiwan that could bring about devastating consequences for the world economy.
It was Scholz personally who resisted a stronger stance against China. Recall his efforts to block EU-level tariffs on Chinese car exports or the peculiar back-and-forth with Huawei and the infiltration of Europe's critical infrastructure by China. The Merz administration must address whether they will adopt a different course in specific disputes, such as those mentioned. As Noah Barkin, an expert on foreign policy, writes in the latest newsletter of the German Marshall Fund, Germany serves as the "key to a more cohesive and effective European stance towards China." Indeed, it does.
Insights on the Merz Government's China Strategy
Friedrich Merz's government pursues a dual-track approach combining cautious political hawkishness with pragmatic economic engagement. Key elements of this approach include:
- China as a Systemic Rival but Partner Where Interests Align: The policy emphasizes limiting dependencies on China through a strategy of “de-risking,” seeking closer EU coordination.
- Closer Coordination at the European Level: The government intends to collaborate more closely with the broader European Union on China policy, potentially leading to a unified EU stance on matters like Taiwan and China's international alliances.
- Managed Trade Engagement: Despite political reservations, the government will likely maintain substantial economic ties with China, especially in key sectors like automotive and electric vehicles.
- Warnings to Businesses: Merz has cautioned German companies about the risks of overdependence on China and indicated that the government would not protect corporations from failings in their investments.
This approach aims to minimize risks from trade war escalations, Chinese support for Russia, and tensions around Taiwan while preserving Germany's economic interests and influence in the multilateral framework.
- The European Union, including Germany under the leadership of the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is committed to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, acknowledging China as a critical partner in combating climate change.
- Despite his lack of deep China expertise, Merz's foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, will face numerous challenges in balancing China's increasing support for Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the need to maintain economic ties, similar to the complexities Angela Merkel faced during disputes over European critical infrastructure and Huawei.
- Politicians and experts question whether the Merz administration will take a different course in specific disputes, such as adopting a firmer stance against Chinese involvement in war-and-conflicts, like Russia's aggression in Ukraine, or addressing human rights issues that may lead to disputes.
- General news, crime-and-justice, and accidents sections of German newspapers may showcase a new policy-and-legislation approach taken by the Merz government in dealing with Chinese state-owned enterprises and German industry, contrasting with the previous "business as usual" stance under Merkel.
- Under the new government, the EU and Germany may seek to introduce stricter regulations in sectors like car-accidents and fires, aimed at reducing German dependence on Chinese imports while ensuring economic interests in key sectors like automotive and electric vehicles remain protected.
- Future car-accidents, fires, or crime-and-justice incidents involving German or Chinese entities could highlight the effectiveness of the Merz administration's approach towards China, as international disputes and events contribute to shaping the cohesive European stance towards China, an essential consideration for the Merz government.
- As the Merz administration navigates the challenges of crafting a cohesive and effective China policy, policymakers and analysts will closely watch the government's handling of disputes to assess their ability to uphold strong general-news reporting standards while balancing the interests of various stakeholders, including Huawei, in the field of politics.
