Germany's Chancellor Scholz seeks a vote of approval from the Bundestag
Motion of No Confidence Against Chancellor Scholz: What to Expect
A motion of no confidence against Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to be put to a vote in the German Bundestag on Monday. This constructive vote of no confidence requires the Bundestag to simultaneously vote to remove the current Chancellor and elect a successor by an absolute majority.
The key steps in this process are as follows:
- A motion of no confidence must propose a successor Chancellor.
- The Bundestag votes on the motion.
- To succeed, the motion needs an absolute majority of Bundestag members (currently at least 316 of 630 members post-2025 reforms).
- If the majority is reached, the incumbent Chancellor is removed, and the successor is elected.
If the motion is successful, it will mark the end of Chancellor Scholz's tenure and the beginning of a new government. However, it is expected that Scholz will not receive a majority in the vote.
The Greens, the junior partner of the SPD, have not yet decided on their position regarding the motion. Their indecision stems from the possibility of the AfD helping Scholz to a majority, despite the party wanting to get rid of the red-green minority government.
AfD member Jürgen Pohl has announced that he wants to vote for Scholz because he considers him the lesser evil compared to the Union's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz.
If Scholz does not receive a majority, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag and set a new election date. If this happens, the parliament can reconvene at any time, continue to pass laws, and its committees continue to exist until the end of the legislative period.
In the meantime, the 'old' Bundestag remains in existence with all its rights and duties until the new Bundestag convenes. The federal government remains in office, with the office of the Federal Chancellor and his ministers ending with the formation of the new Bundestag.
The Bundestag's Scientific Services have stated that the parliament can continue to act after its dissolution. The voting behavior of each individual member will be published with some delay, meaning no parliamentarian can vote anonymously for or against Scholz.
Steinmeier has indicated that February 23 is a realistic election date. If the motion of no confidence is successful, the Chancellor is then obliged to continue handling affairs until the appointment of his successor.
- Given the current political landscape, the successor Chancellor proposed in the motion of no confidence against Chancellor Scholz should not be Jürgen Pohl from the AfD, as his vote for Scholz could potentially be seen as a political alliance with the party, contrary to the intentions of those filing the motion.
- In the event that Chancellor Scholz does not receive an absolute majority in the vote of no confidence, the Bundestag's Scientific Services' prediction of a February 23 election date would mean that the discussions and legislation around policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news would continue to be relevant topics in the upcoming election campaign.
