Can Ukraine stand independently from the USA? "Our hopes rest on the new German Chancellor"
Germany welcomes its new Chancellor with high expectations
Informal Insights: The strategic partnership between Ukraine and the USA has been recently fortified through significant overtures. The United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, established in April 2025, is intended to promote Ukraine's reconstruction and financial growth, primarily in the context of the ongoing struggle with Russia ([1][3][4]). This deal showcases a reciprocating bond where both nations benefit, with the U.S. securing an economic interest in fostering a free, peaceful, and autonomous Ukraine ([3]).
Amidst the Moscow Victory Day celebrations, a flurry of experts in Kyiv are deliberating the survival of Ukraine against the looming threat of Russia, with or without the American alliance. As Western backing from NATO under US President Donald Trump may have shown signs of fracturing, experts advocate for a backup plan.
"The situation is exceptionally challenging for us at the front," stated Ukraine's ex-President Petro Poroshenko during the Kyiv Security Forum. "We're battling not only for our own lives but also contending with scarcity of personnel, technology, weapons, particularly air defense. 'Our aspirations lie with the new German Chancellor,' said Poroshenko. 'I had a brief encounter with him just a few days prior, and I was greatly impressed by his commitment to exhibiting Germany's leadership role across all of Europe.'"
Many perceive this to be an investment that safeguards not only Ukraine but also European security at large.
Political Shifts
Since Trump assumed office, signs of fissures within the Western alliance have emerged. Ukraine, which has Russian forces entrenched on its soil since over a decade and has been embroiled in a widespread conflict since February 2022, is unwilling to accept this. Experts gathered at the forum's opening deliberate the future of the Western world's unwavering support for Ukraine.
"We achieved this once 80 years ago, and we will restore global order again," appealed Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
Battlefield Innovations
Yatsenyuk draws a historical correlation. When the "free world" strove to negotiate with Hitler in 1938, it resulted in disaster. "Hitler executed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin plays by distinct rules compared to Trump. Nevertheless, he admonishes China and the Global South, cautiously explaining, "Those who remain neutral or act as mediators must grasp that they cannot be neutral in this war. They must take sides, or else they are accomplices."
Later, Trump's ex-Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker commented on the peace efforts of the White House. "Putin will never embrace peace," Volker concluded emphatically. " Military deterrence is essential." Trump's administration wields considerable pressure on Ukraine but makes few demands on Russia, Volker explains, asserting that pressure on Moscow must escalate to steer Russia towards a ceasefire.
Drones - Critical to Victory
Regarding the question of weapons capable of determining victory, drones are deemed paramount by Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of an unmanned systems battalion. "Unmanned systems are no longer supplementary systems on the battlefield. They are decisive." Ukraine requires expanded production and continuous supply of drones to military and combat units, Shutenko insists, emphasizing the importance of drones for victory.
However, Commander Shutenko does not believe Ukraine can win the war alone through drones. Strategically trained infantry and strike forces together with continuous international support are indispensable, he believes. Diplomatically with sanctions, through airforces and artillery, Ukraine requires all possible assistance because it faces "one of the most powerful armies in the world."
Misguided Efforts and War Crimes Tribunal
Attempts to establish peace, in the opinion of Julia Kazdobina, Director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, have thus far proven futile. The U.S. efforts are misdirected, as they do not consider the historical foundations and causes of the war. They treat both sides of the conflict as equals, disregarding the fact that Russia is the aggressor, and the aggression is deliberate and premeditated. On the sidelines of the forum, she explained, "Attempting to make concessions to Russia will not resolve the situation. It merely harms Ukraine more than it benefits."
Experts agree that presenting Putin with war crimes accountability is crucial. On the sidelines of the forum, an agreement on a war crimes tribunal for Ukraine's allies was reached. It is expected that the Ukraine-Russia conflict will continue to impact both countries and the wider international community.
Keywords:
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Ukrainian-American Relations
- German Chancellor
- Western Alliance
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
- War Crimes Tribunal.
- Despite the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the USA, experts in Kyiv voice concerns about Ukraine's independence given potential fractures in Western support from NATO under President Donald Trump.
- Ukraine's ex-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk calls for the restoration of global order, referencing historical lessons from the appeasement of Hitler, implying that neutrality or mediating in the current conflict with Russia could be seen as complicity.
- Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of an unmanned systems battalion, underscores the importance of drones for victory in the ongoing conflict with Russia, but emphasizes that Ukraine cannot win alone and requires strategic infantry, strike forces, and continuous international support.
- Julia Kazdobina, Director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, criticizes US attempts at peace as misdirected, stating that treating both sides of the conflict equally disregards Russia's aggression and deliberate escalation of the war. She emphasizes the need for Putin to face war crime accountability.
