Can Ukraine Hold Its Ground Without US Aid? "Our Hopes Lie in the New German Chancellor"
"Germany welcomes a fresh Chancellor, sparking renewed expectations"
In the heart of Kiev, as tanks parade through Moscow to mark victory over Nazism, experts scramble to discuss Ukraine's survival strategy against Russia, with less—or even without—US backing. Western alliances under President Donald Trump's administration seem shaky, leaving Ukraine in a precarious position. But is there hope for peace, and if not, what weapons could turn the tide of war?
Former President Petro Poroshenko voiced his concerns on the sidelines of the Kiev Security Forum. "We're smack dab in a difficult and tumultuous situation," he admitted. "We lack not merely manpower but technology, shells, weapons, and air defense essentials too. We pin our hopes on the new German Chancellor. I've had a chat with him not long ago, and I was deeply impressed by his dedication to fortifying Germany's leading role in all of Europe and demonstrating it."
The topic of conversation among experts from around the globe—including Germany—is Ukraine's need for continued support and peace. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appealed to the allies during the opening speech at the event. "We've done it 80 years ago, and we'll restore the world order once more."
The Deadly Dance of Weapons and Diplomacy
Yatsenyuk made a historical comparison, warning against striking a deal with a vicious predator like Putin, who he compared to Hitler. "Hitler launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin is playing by his own rules, threatening China and the Global South, stating, "Those who claim neutrality or present themselves as mediators must realize that one cannot be neutral in this war, one must take sides, otherwise, one is an accomplice."
Former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker believes peace efforts led by the White House are futile. "Putin will never accept peace," he proclaimed. "We need military deterrence. The White House government is exerting much pressure on Ukraine, but it's not making many demands on Russia. The pressure on Moscow must be increased to move Russia towards a ceasefire."
The Rise of Drones in an Era of War
Commander Vjacheslav Shutenko, who heads a battalion specializing in unmanned systems, sees these technological innovations as instrumental in warfare. "Unmanned systems are no longer mere add-ons. They are the decisive force on the battlefield." Ukraine requires more drones to prevail, Shutenko stresses, adding, "We need scalable drone production and uninterrupted drone supply to the Ukrainian military and combat units."
Tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw concurs, emphasizing that only advanced technologies can safeguard soldiers' lives. This, in turn, benefits the arsenal industries of allies like Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
However, Shutenko himself admits that Ukraine cannot single-handedly win the war solely with drones. "Well-trained infantry and attack units are crucial, but continued international support through diplomatic measures, sanctions, air forces, and artillery is equally important because we're fighting here against one of the most potent armies in the world. If we succeed, we'll wound the Russians so gravely they'll plead for peace negotiations."
While negotiations haven't made significant progress, Julia Kazdobina, a security expert and director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, asserts that previous peace attempts have been misguided. "They've attempted to establish peace without considering the war's history and causes. They view both sides equally and dismiss the fact that Russia is the aggressor, and the aggression is deliberate and orchestrated." Concessions to Russia will not lead to resolution, she argued. "That only harms Ukraine more than it helps."
In an interview, Kazdobina pointed out that other European countries are already engulfed in war. "Russian military doctrine states that hybrid techniques weaken potential victims first, followed by direct confrontation. Even if it appears that there's peace and only hybrid attacks are happening, they’re already at war."
With US aid on the verge of expiration, experts see the resource agreement ratified by the Ukrainian parliament as a positive sign, indicating that Ukraine's resolve to stand firm is admirable. Ambassador Steven Pifer, who served as the US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, advocates continued US involvement. However, he also advises Ukraine to have a contingency plan, as the situation remains uncertain. "It's vital that Kyiv has a Plan B."
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
Key Points:
- Ukraine is struggling to maintain its defense against aggressive Russian forces.
- The European Union, particularly Germany, is a source of hope for additional support.
- Drones play a significant role in the conflict, offering both sides an edge in reconnaissance and targeting.
- Without sustained US aid, Ukraine's ability to resist is compromised, as advanced weapons and technology are critical to defending against a numerically superior foe.
- The ongoing conflict remains tense and unresolved, and international support is crucial for Ukraine's survival.
- In the absence of continued US aid, Ukraine is grappling to hold its ground against aggressive Russian forces.
- The European Union, specifically Germany under the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is a potential source of additional support for Ukraine's economic and social cohesion policy, including employment policy, as they strive to fortify their role in Europe.
- During the ongoing war-and-conflicts, drones have emerged as a decisive force on the battlefield for both Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine needing scalable drone production and uninterrupted drone supply to combat the Russian forces.
- As the situation remains uncertain, it is crucial for Ukraine to have Plan B, continuing its efforts to secure international support, sanctions, air forces, and artillery to maintain its defense against one of the most potent armies in the world.
