Germany confronts a growing disparity in birth rates, as more people choose not to have children or are unable to, leading to a potential demographic crisis.
In Germany, the fertility rate has been on a steady decline, reaching an all-time low of 1.35 children per woman in 2024 - the lowest since 1994. This trend is echoed globally, particularly in developed countries, where the number of children born often falls below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The primary factors contributing to this demographic shift in Germany include delayed parenthood, societal attitudes towards having children, economic and social insecurity, inadequate childcare support, and higher education and career priorities for women. These factors have led to an increase in the average age of first-time mothers (30.4 years) and fathers (33.3 years).
The gap between the desired and actual number of children, known as the "fertility gap," is largely due to delayed partnerships, social perceptions of parenthood, and insufficient state support for families, particularly childcare availability and reliability.
The potential consequences of this sustained low fertility rate are profound. For instance, a shrinking workforce could pose significant challenges to Germany's social insurance, pension, and healthcare systems. A reduced number of contributors to social insurance funds could threaten the financial sustainability of pension systems, potentially leading to higher contribution rates for workers, reduced pension benefits, or both.
An aging population also increases demand for healthcare and eldercare services. However, the shrinking workforce limits the available caregivers and financial resources, intensifying sustainability risks for public health insurance and care systems.
Economically, fewer workers could mean slower economic growth, less innovation, and reduced political and military influence internationally. However, some economic adjustments are possible, such as increased labor force participation among women and reallocation of resources due to fewer children.
Comedian and influencer Julia Brandner, who chose sterilization at 28, argues that women still bear the burden of parenting and are often judged for personal choices. Sociologist Michaela Kreyenfeld ties falling fertility rates to global crises such as COVID-19, climate change, and inflation.
Martin Bujard of the Federal Institute for Population Research identifies the "fertility gap" as a significant issue, referring to the difference between the 1.8 children people want and the 1.35 they have. Without urgent reform to improve work-life balance, Bujard warns of potential long-term harm to social insurance, lower pensions, and cuts to healthcare and eldercare by 2030 in Germany.
Globally, fertility rates are plummeting, with South Korea hitting 0.75 and Vietnam recently sounding the alarm. Regions like Africa's Sahel still average more than five children per woman.
Germany's earlier family policies, such as parental allowance and universal daycare, have been successful but are now faltering due to staff shortages and underfunding. Rates of childlessness are especially high among young female academics in Germany.
The far-right AfD calls for boosting birth rates without relying on immigration. Twenty-two percent of women and 36% of men aged 30-50 remain childless in Germany.
In summary, Germany's falling fertility, driven by social, economic, and demographic factors, is expected to place growing strain on its social welfare systems. Policy renewal focused on improving work-family balance, childcare, and support for parents is needed to mitigate future social and economic challenges. Similar issues play out globally in other low-fertility countries.
- The discourse on Germany's low fertility rate often intersects with general news and politics, as economic and social insecurities, insufficient childcare support, and societal attitudes towards having children are frequently debated topics in political discussions.
- Amidst global trends of declining fertility rates, particularly in developed countries, the "fertility gap" in Germany - the difference between the desired and actual number of children - has become a prominent point in general news and political debates, with concerns raised about the implications for the country's social welfare systems and economic sustainability.
