Reports on upcoming 'century winter' - what's the truth? - Germany Braces for Chilly Winter 2025/2026, January Cold Snap Predicted
Germany braces for a chilly winter in 2025/2026, according to recent seasonal outlooks. Meteorologists predict a cold snap, particularly in January, despite current forecasts suggesting a mild start and overall warmer-than-average winter.
Seasonal outlooks, unlike daily forecasts, provide probabilistic trends over roughly three months. Key factors influencing the cold winter prediction include the behavior of the polar vortex, expected to be weak, and shifts in pressure fields such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices, both predicted to be negative. These factors contribute to cold spells with snow, mainly in January, especially in southern Germany and mountainous regions.
Lara Wallberg of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology notes improvements in seasonal forecasts for European winters. However, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) currently assesses an 86% likelihood of a normal to warmer-than-average winter in Germany. The DWD emphasizes the uncertainty of such forecasts, stating that cold snaps can only be forecast a few weeks in advance.
While seasonal outlooks suggest a cold winter in Germany for 2025/2026, particularly in January, the DWD maintains a high level of uncertainty. Whether cold snaps will hit Europe can only be forecast a few weeks in advance, leaving room for potential surprises in the upcoming winter.
