Bloody Hell, Germany's Fate at 2026 World Cup Hinges on Nations League Performance, Specifically that Damn Portugal Match
German national soccer team, DFB, set to face Portugal in the FIFA World Cup tournament.
The bloody Germans are frantic about the 2026 World Cup approaching at a breakneck pace. Coach Julian Nagelsmann is bloody determined to clinch the Nations League title, but the stakes are far bleedin' higher than just a little trophy.
You see, if the DFB team manages to win the UEFA competition, they'll earn a boatload of points in the blasted world rankings, securing a top spot in the seeding pot for the upcoming summer tournament. But if they bloody lose in the semifinal against Portugal in Munich on Wednesday (21:00 CET), they risk fucking it up and missing out on the top pot, potentially losing the race against Italy for the last spot in pot 1.
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If that bloody nightmare comes to pass, the DFB team would be relegated to pot 2 for the World Cup draw in December. And that's a bloody hard pill to swallow: starting the tournament with two disadvantages - assuming the DFB team qualifies, of course - puts them at a grave risk of facing heavy hitters like Spain, Argentina, France, or England in the group stage. Plus, landing in pot 2 puts them at risk of drawing co-host Mexico.
While they wouldn't have to face the heavyweights, they'd still be up against the wall with challenging travel conditions. Mexico's venues are either at high altitudes or bake under boiling summer temperatures, hitting up to 36 degrees Celsius. The tournament's tree is divided into three clusters, but the central venues with Mexico would still mean tough travel. For instance, Mexico City and Kansas City are over 2000 kilometers apart.
Saddle Up, Let's Do Some Math
Nagelsmann has already spoken of this scenario in March when Germany missed their chance to out-rank Italy for the crucial ninth spot in the world rankings with a late equalizer in Dortmund. In pot 1, alongside hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico, will be the top nine teams in the world rankings.
One thing's bloody for sure: there'll be plenty of number crunching to do. The rankings for the World Cup seedings are determined by a complex formula where each game is weighted differently. A victory against Portugal in regular time would see Germany climb to 1730.27 points, overtaking Italy (1718.31 - can only gain 7.49 points with a win against Norway in their World Cup qualifier, bringing their provisional total to 1725.80 points).
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Even a defeat in the potential final against Spain or France on Sunday (20:15 CET) could cost the DFB team points, giving Italy the bloody chance to retake the lead. The world rankings at the conclusion of the World Cup qualifiers will determine the draw.
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The Netherlands (1752.44), Portugal (1750.08), and Belgium (1735.75) are still catchable on places six to eight. However, Croatia (1698.66) and Morocco (1694.24) are lurking from behind, but they won't be able to collect many more points in their World Cup qualifying rounds. Regardless of the calculations, the European nations still need to qualify for the World Cup finals. Germany, in their group, will face Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg in the second half of the year.
Sources: ntv.de, ara/dpa
- Julian Nagelsmann
- Football National Team
- Football World Cup 2026
- Nations League
If Germany fails to beat Portugal in their semi-final match, they might find themselves in a challenging situation, as they could miss out on Pot 1 for the 2026 World Cup draw. This could lead to a difficult group stage match against heavyweights like Spain, Argentina, France, or England.
Considering the DFB team still needs to qualify for the World Cup, and Italy is closing in on them for the last spot in Pot 1, Julian Nagelsmann and the football national team are not going to be able to go easy on Portugal. Without a win, they risk facing a difficult start at the World Cup.
