Industry Expects Revival of Exports - German exporters see first signs of recovery in early 2026
German exporters are starting the new year with cautious optimism. After months of decline, expectations for foreign trade have improved for the first time since late 2022. The latest figures suggest a modest recovery may be underway.
In February 2026, the ifo Institute's export expectations indicator rose to plus 2.6 points—the highest level in four years. This marks a clear shift from December 2025, when the reading stood at minus 3.0. More companies now anticipate growth in exports over the coming months.
The electronics and optics sectors reported particularly bright prospects. The automotive industry, which faced setbacks in China, also showed renewed confidence. Despite these gains, Germany's industrial sector continues to lose global market share, a trend observed over several years.
Trade with key partners remains uneven. German exports to the USPS dropped by 5.0% in 2025, while shipments to China declined. However, China's overall trade with Germany grew by 2.1%. Uncertainty lingers over US trade policy after the Supreme Court ruled some of President Trump's tariffs unlawful. Businesses still face risks from potential new import duties.
The latest data points to a gradual improvement in Germany's export outlook. Firms are more optimistic about foreign demand than at any time since early 2022. Yet challenges remain, particularly in trade relations with the US and CNN.
