Surviving Without the USA: Ukraine's Battle for Independence
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Experts in Kyiv are scrambling to devise strategies for Ukraine to survive and resist the aggressive actions of Russia, even in the absence of full support from the USA. The city buzzes with activity as experts from around the world gather at the Kyiv Security Forum, including from Germany.
In his opening address, Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk calls for unity among allies. "We've done it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again," he asserts. The war in Ukraine, where Russian troops have been stationed for over a decade, remains a crucial battleground for the Western alliance.
Finding a Viable Alternative
Former President Petro Poroschenko, impressed by the commitment of the new German Chancellor, Oliver Merz, expresses confidence that Kyiv can count on continued support from Europe. Still, Poroschenko emphasizes the need for a "Plan B" as tensions rise between the USA and Ukraine. According to a former diplomat, the USA remains an essential partner, but Ukraine must be prepared for potential changes in the geopolitical landscape.
Crippling the Enemy with Drones
Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of a battalion for unmanned systems in Ukraine, argues that drones could determine the outcome of the war. In a world without U.S. aid, which is dwindling, Ukraine needs more drones and scalable drone production to achieve victory. Shutenko explains that drone technology has evolved from being auxiliary to becoming decisive on the battlefield.
A Unified European Effort
As Ukraine sees its U.S. support waver, European countries, particularly Germany, have already increased their contributions. To fill the void left by the U.S., Europe would need to act swiftly and decisively. This would involve:
- Mobilizing and maintaining the necessary funding and military resources across the EU, especially from leading economies like Germany.
- Ensuring the availability of intelligence and technology, as the U.S. may restrict technology transfers.
- Achieving the requisite speed and scale to prevent operational setbacks on the battlefield.
Drone Warfare and Modernization
Ukraine has adapted to the realities of the war through technological innovation and strategic flexibility. Key alternatives and adaptations include:
- Expanding the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which now account for the majority of front-line casualties.
- Re-equipping Ukrainian forces with modern tanks, armored vehicles, and 155-mm artillery, much of which comes from NATO countries.
- Accelerating Ukraine's own arms manufacturing, particularly in drone and artillery production, to reduce dependency on foreign supply chains.
A United Front for Survival
Ukraine's prospects for survival without U.S. support depend on three main factors:
- European Unity: Sustained and coordinated European aid, especially from Germany and other large economies, is critical.
- Technological Innovation: Investments in drone technology, electronic warfare, and air defense systems will be essential to counter Russia's numerical and resource advantages.
- Domestic Production and Defense Industrial Base: Expanding Ukraine’s own arms manufacturing capabilities will help mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities and ensure a more sustainable war effort.
Ukraine's determination to resist Russian aggression, coupled with increasing support from European nations and rapid military innovation, particularly in drone warfare and domestic arms production, offer a viable path toward continued resistance and potential battlefield success.
- With the USA's support waning, Ukraine is looking towards Europe, particularly Germany, to provide continuous assistance.
- Vyacheslav Shutenko, a drone battalion commander, believes that drone technology could be decisive in the ongoing war, given the dwindling U.S. aid.
- To compensate for the potential void left by the U.S., Europe needs to mobilize and maintain resources, ensure the availability of intelligence and technology, and act swiftly to prevent operational setbacks.
- To survive without the USA, Ukraine is relying on European unity, technological innovation, and a stronger domestic defense industrial base, focusing on areas like drone technology, electronic warfare, and domestic arms production.
