Surviving the Storm: Ukraine's Stance Amidst US Absence and Germany's Role
"German Chancellor change prompts optimism among the populace"
As the world watches tensions escalate between Ukraine and Russia, experts in Kyiv are brainstorming strategies to fortify Ukraine's defense in the event of reduced or absent US support. While Trump's administration has shown cracks in the Western coalition, Ukraine remains steadfast in its resolve. Could the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, be the ray of hope Ukraine is pinning its hopes upon?
In the midst of the storm brewing in Moscow, experts voice their thoughts on how Ukraine can survive a potential war without the US. "We are on the frontline in an extremely difficult situation," said former President Petro Poroshenko at the Kyiv Security Forum. "We need more than just personnel; we need technology, shells, weapons, and air defense. Our hopes lie with the new German Chancellor. I had a enlightening conversation with him and was impressed by his commitment to Germany’s decisive role in European security."
Politics: Fractured Alliances and Peace Efforts
Since Trump took office, the Western alliance has shown clear signs of strain. In Ukraine, where Russian forces have been occupying territory for over a decade and the conflict has been raging since February 2022, this fracturing is not an option. This topic was central to the opening speech at the forum, where experts from around the world gathered, including Germany. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appealed to the allies, "We've done it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again."
Weapons for Victory
Yatsenyuk drew parallels to the past. When the "free world" tried to negotiate with Hitler in 1938, it was disastrous. "Hitler launched a major invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin operates under different rules than Trump. He warned China and the Global South, "Those who claim neutrality or act as mediators must realize that you cannot be neutral in this war; you must take sides, or else you become an accomplice."
Later, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker, sat on a panel and spoke about the prospects of peace. "Putin will never accept peace," he stated firmly. "We need military deterrence." The Trump administration exerts significant pressure on Ukraine but places little demand on Russia, Volker explains. Pressure on Moscow needs to increase dramatically to bring about a ceasefire. Trump's lack of understanding of Putin's motivations, as dictated by his appetite for deals, clouds the situation further.
The War of Technology
Vjacheslav Shutenko, commander of a battalion for unmanned systems, emphasized the importance of drones in modern warfare. "Today's wars are about technology, precision, and speed. Unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary; they are decisive on the battlefield." Shutenko believes Ukraine needs more drones to claim victory: "We must have scalable drone production and continuous drone supply to Ukrainian military and combat units."
This sentiment is echoed in a separate roundtable discussion on battlefield innovations, where it was agreed that Ukraine is leading the way in military technology development. Dmytro Shymkiw, a tech entrepreneur, said, "The military technology of tomorrow is currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovations happen within months, even weeks. Adaptations between engineers and units on the battlefield take place during ongoing deployment. The most advanced technologies can protect soldiers' lives, which benefits our allies, such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal."
The Fight for More Than Survival
However, Commander Shutenko believes Ukraine cannot triumph solely through drone warfare: well-trained infantry and attack units are crucial, but international support is even more critical. "We need trained personnel, but continuous international support in terms of sanctions, air forces, artillery, and diplomacy is indispensable. We are facing one of the most powerful armies in the world here in Ukraine. If we prevail, we will inflict such losses on the Russians that they will beg for negotiations and peace."
Negotiations are currently going nowhere for Ukraine. Security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, shares her insight on the US government's diplomatic approach, "The US government's efforts so far have been largely misguided. It tries to create peace without considering the history and causes of the war. It treats both sides equally and ignores the fact that Russia is the aggressor. Attempts to make concessions to Russia will not resolve the situation. This only harms Ukraine."
The Path Forward
According to Kazdobina, other European countries are also at war, albeit through hybrid methods designed to weaken potential victims. "Even if there seems to be peace and they are only exposed to hybrid attacks, they are already at war." The ideal scenario would be for US aid to continue, but Ukraine must maintain a Plan B.
Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, encourages continued US involvement, provided that Kyiv has a Plan B ready. Ukraine has ratified a resource agreement with the US, which many see as a positive signal. Pifer remarked, "It's vital that Kyiv has a Plan B. We should continue to engage the US, but we can't rely solely on them. We need a diverse array of allies and resources to ensure our survival in this ongoing struggle."
Drone Warfare and Layered Air Defense
By focusing on drone warfare, layered air defense, and strategic reserves, Ukraine can maintain a strong defensive posture while reducing manpower costs. A layered air defense system, along with long-range conventional precision strikes, will be essential for deterring future Russian attacks. Developing a deep strategic reserve will allow Ukraine to maintain readiness without relying heavily on active-duty forces, freeing up resources for economic reconstruction.
The Role of Germany
Germany has played a significant role in supporting Ukraine, though details on its involvement in scenarios without significant US support are not readily available. Generally, Germany has provided military and economic aid to Ukraine. In broader terms, Germany and other European countries are likely to continue supporting Ukraine through military aid, economic support, and diplomatic efforts to pressure Russia and facilitate peace negotiations.
Ukraine's future lies not only in the hands of the US and Germany but also in its own resilience and adaptability. As the world watches, it remains to be seen how Ukraine will navigate this stormy sea and emerge victorious.
- Attack on Ukraine
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
(*Enrichment Data added for informational purposes and to provide additional context. The text has been revised and restructured without overloading the content with excessive details.)
- Experts in Ukraine suggest that the country needs more than just military personnel and should seek technology, weapons, and air defense systems due to the potential absence of US support.
- Ukraine's former Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, emphasized the importance of Germany's role in European security, expressing confidence in the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
- Former Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker, suggested that diplomacy needs to be backed up with military deterrence to bring about a ceasefire, as pressure on Moscow needs to increase dramatically.
- Vjacheslav Shutenko, a battalion commander for unmanned systems, urged for scalable drone production and continuous drone supply to the Ukrainian military to claim victory in the ongoing war.
