Georgia gears up for a lone adversary electoral contest

In the twist of history, the wealthy tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili has orchestrated a remarkable unity among Georgia's divisive political scene twice—first to seize power in 2012, and now, after three elections, a similar alliances among the opposition may dethrone him.

With a multitude of groups, factions, and politicians that make up Georgia's fractious opposition, they've consolidated into a handful of electoral alliances to battle Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream party in the October 26 parliamentary elections. The outcome of these polls likely influences Georgia's political orientation and government structure for years ahead.

Conquering the voting threshold is challenging for separate opposition parties under Georgia's electoral system, as parties rather than individual candidates are on the ballot. Parties or blocs need a greater than 5% share of the vote to claim seats in the legislature. Combining support bases through coalitions is thus a winning formula for opposition success, asserts Dustin Gilbreath, a long-term polling data analyzer in the Caucasus.

Coordination among the nation's fragmented political players was primarily orchestrated by President Salome Zourabichvili, who once served as Ivanishvili's protegé but has become a vocal critic since. With her encouragement, the opposition has grouped into four dominant blocs. While none of these groups is anticipated to overtake Georgian Dream on their own, having representatives from all in the parliament could potentially form a coalition government and topple Georgian Dream's leadership.

One of these blocs is steered by another Ivanishvili former ally-turned-foe, ex-prime minister Giorgi Gakharia. Often charismatic yet contentious, Gakharia, a Moscow-trained business administrator, appeals to voters weary of both Georgian Dream and the longstanding archrival United National Movement (UNM). Gakharia presents his group as a third policy option on the scene long controlled by the antagonism between kotsi and natsi—slang referring to Georgian Dream and UNM respectively—and the influential figures behind them, Ivanishvili and ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili. Gakharia, however, is hobbled by his past actions such as the violent suppression of protests that occurred during his tenure as interior minister in 2019.

Concurrently, Mamuka Khazaradze, leader of Lelo for Georgia, competes for a comparable segment of the electorate. Georgia's most celebrated banker, Khazaradze ventured into politics following Ivanishvili's administration allegedly swindling him of his mega-project to create the nation's first deep-sea port. To pick up a few more election points, Khazaradze’s group absorbed a couple of smaller political entities, forming an alliance aptly named Strong Georgia. Khazaradze's sizable financial resources enable him to run a sophisticated campaign, but his success as a financier also serves as an obstacle, as many households carry resentment toward credit institutions in economically troubled Georgia, burdened with bank debts.

Zourabichvili attempts to arrange a political marriage between Khazaradze's and Gakharia's forces. Assembling, they potentially could've been the largest opposition party or, if not, crucial in creating a coalition government, according to Gilbreath, though he suggests that polls paint varied images. However, the two men quarreled during their final meeting arranged by Zourabichvili and opted to contest the election independently.

The UNM leads another powerful opposition coalition, expected to surpass the required 5% threshold, dominating most polls. If Khazaradze's and Gakharia's forces don't secure significant representation in the parliament, Georgia may suffer another four years of strife between the UNM and Georgian Dream.

Another electoral alliance, determined to clear the borderline, is the Coalition for Change. Similar to the UNM, this coalition styles itself as an alternative to the UNM, but it incorporates well-known former UNM officials along with libertarian elements, raising uncertainty among voters concerning the distinction between this coalition and the UNM.

Polling data in Georgia mirrors the saying—those who pay the pollster dictate the tune. A survey sponsored by the Georgian Dream-aligned Imedi TV puts support for Georgian Dream at around 60%, while an opposition-friendly Formula TV poll puts this figure at around 32%. Analysts believe the latter portrays a more accurate reflection of public support for the incumbent, yet they emphasize that no survey offers reliable predictions of the election outcome.

Meanwhile, Georgian Dream's ominous threats toward opposition and election watchdogs generate unease about plans to rig the voting results. Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of these elections overlooks Georgia, with the opposition rallied and hoping to challenge the powerful ruling party.

The consolidation of opposition groups in Georgia presents a potential threat to the political dominance of Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream party.
The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia could significantly shape the political direction and government structure of the country for years to come.
Dustin Gilbreath, a long-term polling data analyst in the Caucasus, asserts that the key to the opposition's success lies in forming coalitions.
President Salome Zourabichvili, a vocal critic of Ivanishvili, has played a significant role in coordinating opposition groups, which have consolidated into four dominant blocs.
Giorgi Gakharia, a former ally of Ivanishvili, leads one of these blocs and presents his group as a third policy option, appealing to voters weary of both Georgian Dream and the United National Movement (UNM).
Mamuka Khazaradze, leader of Lelo for Georgia, competes for a comparable segment of the electorate, having absorbed smaller political entities to form an alliance named Strong Georgia.
Zourabichvili attempted to arrange a political marriage between Khazaradze's and Gakharia's forces, potentially creating the largest opposition party or a crucial component for a coalition government.
The UNM leads another powerful opposition coalition, dominating most polls and expected to surpass the required 5% threshold.
Another coalition, the Coalition for Change, styles itself as an alternative to the UNM but incorporates well-known former UNM officials and libertarian elements, causing voter uncertainty.
Polling data in Georgia reflects the saying—those who pay the pollster dictate the tune, with surveys providing varying images of public support for the opposition and Georgian Dream.
Analysts believe opposition-friendly polls offer a more accurate reflection of public support for the incumbent, although they caution that no survey provides reliable predictions of the election outcome.
Georgia's political landscape is marked by the antagonism between kotsi and natsi—slang referring to Georgian Dream and UNM respectively—and the influential figures behind them, Ivanishvili and ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili.
Gakharia, however, is hampered by his past actions such as the violent suppression of protests during his tenure as interior minister in 2019.
Khazaradze's success as a financier also serves as an obstacle, as many households in economically troubled Georgia carry resentment toward credit institutions burdened with bank debts.
The opposition's rallied efforts to challenge the powerful ruling party overshadow Georgia, with uncertainty surrounding the outcome of these elections.
Uncertainty regarding the elections' integrity grows as Georgian Dream makes ominous threats toward opposition and election watchdogs.
The fate of Georgia's politics, businesses, and general news will likely hinge on the outcome of these elections, as policy-and-legislation, crime-and-justice, accidents, fires, sports, and sports-betting industries may be affected.
European leagues, basketball, college basketball (NCAAt), baseball, hockey, golf, sports-analysis, auto-racing, mixed-martial-arts, war-and-conflicts, car-accidents, football (Champions League, NFL, WNBA, MLB, Premier League, American Football, NBA), grand-prix, horse-racing, laliga, and ncaa-football could all be impacted by the decisions made in Georgia's parliament.
Migration, specifically within these sports industries and their corresponding betting markets, could be affected, as a change in Georgia's leadership might create new opportunities or challenges for international athletes and teams.
In the heated race for Georgia's parliament, the competition between various political groups will also have implications for car-accidents, fires, and racing industries, as different policies could lead to changes in safety regulations and infrastructure development.