Public Opinion Polls Indicate a Favorable Attitude Towards the New Administration - Gauge for Assessing Favorable Opinion towards Fresh Administration
A new poll conducted by the Mannheimer Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF reveals mixed sentiments among German citizens regarding the recently formed black-red coalition government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. While the coalition has made a start, only 41% of respondents believe it has made a good beginning, with 51% dissatisfied.
Should a federal election be held next Sunday, the current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not secure a majority. The CDU/CSU would see a slight drop to 26%, while the AfD remains steady at 23%. The SPD gains one point, reaching 16%, and the Greens improve slightly to 12%. The Left could still expect 10%, BSW 3%, and the FDP 4%.
Alexander Dobrindt, the new Federal Minister of the Interior (CSU), has ordered stricter border controls. While 51% of respondents anticipate these measures will significantly reduce the number of asylum seekers and refugees coming to Germany, 47% are skeptical of their effectiveness.
Respondents also express skepticism about the coalition's ability to tackle issues related to refugees and asylum. Forty-four percent believe that the black-red coalition will contribute significantly to solving these problems, while 51% hold a contrary view.
The new government also faces low expectations in other policy areas. Only 25% anticipate improvements in the realm of pensions and old-age security, with 72% expressing negativity. In the area of housing market and rents, 75% expect no improvements, while 22% hold hope for change. Only in the economy do respondents exhibit majority support, with 64% believing the new government will boost economic growth, as opposed to 32% who are not confident.
The intention of the federal government to increase spending on the Bundeswehr and defense receives strong support, with more than two-thirds (70%) backing higher defense spending. Majorities across the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP constituencies support this proposition, while 26% oppose it.
In terms of public sympathies and performance, Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius (SPD) remains at the forefront, with an average value of 2.2 on a scale of plus 5 to minus 5. The Left MP Gregor Gysi, SPD chairman Lars Klingbeil, former Green Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, and Chancellor Merz all follow closely, each with relatively positive average values.
CSU chairman Markus Söder, Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), BSW chairwoman Sahra Wagenknecht, and AfD chairwoman Alice Weidel trail behind, with negative average values.
The poll surveyed 1,328 eligible voters between May 20 and 22, 2025, yielding a margin of error of approximately plus/minus three percentage points for a proportion of 40% and plus/minus two percentage points for a proportion of ten percent.
- The respondents' sentiments towards the black-red coalition's employment policies are unclear, as the poll did not specifically address this aspect.
- The migration policy of the black-red coalition, particularly in light of stricter border controls, is met with uncertainty, as 47% of respondents doubt the measures' effectiveness in reducing asylum seekers and refugees.
- The new federal government's ability to tackle policy-and-legislation issues related to war-and-conflicts, crime-and-justice, general news, or other significant topics falls below expectations, as only 25% anticipate improvements in pensions and old-age security, and 75% expect no improvements in the housing market and rents.
