Gambling revenue in Macau growing ahead of Golden Week festival

Last month saw a surprise 1.7% year-on-year jump in Macau's gaming revenue, totalling MOP18.81 billion ($2.35 billion), according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Analysts had anticipated a more modest 1.25% decline.

This optimistic start could bode well for Golden Week, the five-day Chinese holiday commencing on May 1st. Historically, Macau casinos rake in the most cash in May, August, and October, primarily due to the influx of millions of mainland tourists during these months. Still, Macau being the only Chinese region where casino gambling is legal.

Macau's Upturn Linked to Improving Chinese Economy

The boost in GGR can be attributed to China's improving economy, as stated by Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners. According to Umansky, consumer confidence, especially amongst the upper-middle class, is key to driving growth in Macau. Although the ongoing US-China trade war remains a concern, with parts of the Chinese economy still flagging, stimulus measures from the central government should bolster economic activity and consumer confidence in 2025.

The trade war may also lead Beijing to implement more forceful stimulus measures, which could positively impact Macau revenues.

Golden Week: The Next Big Barometer

As of year-to-date, Macau casinos have generated MOP76.51 billion, a 0.8% increase over the same period in 2024. However, the monthly average of MOP19.12 billion is below the MOP20 billion needed to meet the yearly target of MOP240 billion.

During Golden Week, the Macau Government Tourism Office expects around 127,000 to 140,000 daily visitors. This holiday period is considered "the next important data point" as casinos and the local government ramp up after-hours entertainment, aiming for more overnight stays.

While the content in this article is primarily focused on April's increase, one can speculate that the Golden Week holiday in May could bring significant revenue, potentially surpassing year-over-year targets. However, without structural changes, Macau's revenue may remain cyclical, dependent on holiday periods like Golden Week.

The positive trend in Macau's gaming revenue may continue during Golden Week, given the historically high revenues generated in May, primarily due to the influx of tourists.
If the Macau Government Tourism Office's expectations of 127,000 to 140,000 daily visitors during Golden Week hold true, the holiday period could substantially contribute to the casinos' revenue, potentially surpassing year-on-year targets.
To maintain the momentum and achieve the yearly target of MOP240 billion, Macau casinos may need to consider tailwind strategies, such as offering more after-hours entertainment to encourage longer stays, which could help decrease reliance on cyclical holiday periods like Golden Week.