Future UK heatwaves may exceed 114F (46C), Met Office predicts
The UK is bracing itself for another potential round of searing temperatures, with a 50-50 chance of seeing temperatures skyrocket to 40°C within the next 12 years, according to the Met Office. And that's not all - temperatures of 45°C or even higher might become a reality, as the risk of extreme heat continues to escalate due to climate change.
The mercury first soared past 40°C during the scorching heatwave of 2022, peaking at 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, on July 19. This shattered previous records, with Cambridge having recorded the previous high of 38.7°C in 2019.
The sizzling heat ignited numerous fires that rampaged through homes, schools, churches, and farmland, prompting emergency declarations in fire departments in London, Leicestershire, and South Yorkshire. The fiery inferno also disrupted transport systems and left power grids in chaos.
The heatwave claimed more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England that summer, with over a thousand excess deaths among the elderly during the four-day heatwave peak.
The risk of temperatures breaching 40°C in the UK has drastically surged over the years, with odds currently 20 times greater than in the 1960s, and the likelihood nearly tripling since 2000.
The study published in Weather Journal states that a temperature of 46.6°C is within the realm of possibility.
"With our climate continuing to warm, we can expect the chance of exceeding 40°C to keep rising," said Dr Gillian Kay, lead author of the study and senior scientist at the Met Office.
Heatwaves could even persist for a month or more in the future, with models predicting up to two-thirds of summer days could surpass the 28°C heatwave threshold. The study also suggests that a string of 12 consecutive days above 35°C isn't out of the question.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, emphasizes the importance of preparing for and planning against the growing threat of extreme heat to better safeguard public health, infrastructure, and the environment.
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Wildfires ignited by the heatwave in 2022 disrupted transport systems and left power grids in chaos, prompting emergency declarations in several regions. Climate change has significantly increased the risk of temperatures breaching 40°C in the UK, with the likelihood nearly tripling since 2000. In the future, heatwaves could persist for a month or more, and a string of 12 consecutive days above 35°C might become a reality, impacting public health, infrastructure, and environmental-science.
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