The Burden of Extreme Heatwaves Transferred Across Generations
Future Generations Face Potential Detriment: Analysis Indicates Increased Impact on Coming Age Groups.
Contrary to popular belief, the elderly are less likely to feel the brunt of climate change, particularly heatwaves, compared to newborns and children born within the last decade, according to a scientific study. For instance, individuals born in 2020 face a greater likelihood of experiencing severe heatwaves throughout their lifetime, even if the global temperature rise is kept at a modest 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels.
- Upcoming Generations Bear the Highest Risks: Approximately 52% of five-year-olds born in 2020 may face unprecedented heatwaves over the course of their lifetime, as compared to only 16% of those born in 1960. This research is published in the journal, "Nature," led by a team headed by Luke Grant from Vrije Universiteit in Brussels.
Climate change causes measurable increases in the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, river floods, droughts, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones[5]. However, little research has delved into the personal impacts of these events on individuals. Using climate models and demographic data, this study aims to predict the number of people who would be exposed to unprecedented stress from extreme events during their lifetime.
The Growing Threat of Extreme Weather
Researchers simulated three different scenarios: a global temperature rise of 1.5°C, 2.5°C, and 3.5°C above the pre-industrial level. Their findings project that about 120 million people born in 2020 would be exposed to unprecedented heatwave stress in a 1.5°C scenario, whereas 92% would face it in a 3.5°C scenario. Unprecedented crop failures could affect almost a third, and one in seven individuals could be affected by river floods[4].
If states successfully meet their pledges to combat climate change during climate conferences, the Earth's temperature would increase by 2.7°C by 2100. If additional efforts lead to limiting the global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, 613 million people born between 2003 and 2020 could be spared from experiencing unprecedented heatwave stress[4].
Socio-economic Vulnerability
"The need for comprehensive and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the burden of today's young generation from climate change becomes evident from our results," the study authors state[4]. They define unprecedented stress from extreme events as a probability below 1 in 10,000 that a person would experience the same stress levels from these events in a world without climate change[4]. The analysis acknowledges certain study limitations, like the exclusion of internal migration factors.
Global Inequality
In addition to spatial variation, the impact of climate-induced heatwaves also presents striking differences between wealthier and poorer nations:
- Wealthier Nations: These regions typically boast better infrastructure, resources, and facilities like cooling systems and health care to combat heatwaves' effects. Nevertheless, they still face significant economic and environmental challenges due to climate change.
- Poorer Nations: In these regions, a lack of infrastructure and resources exacerbates the impact of heatwaves, as less than adequate cooling systems, healthcare facilities, and emergency services make them highly prone to heat-related illnesses and fatalities. Compared to wealthier countries, these nations often lack resources for adapting to climate change, increasing social and economic vulnerability[5][4].
In a scenario with a 2.7°C warming and current policies, poorer communities with high poverty levels and low GDP face a disproportionately higher risk of exposure to heatwaves[2]. The disparity in climate vulnerability is not just between nations but also within them, as socioeconomically vulnerable children face a disproportionately higher risk of exposure to heatwaves, regardless of their country of origin.
Sources:[1] ntv.de[2] Gualdi, R., & Muttarak, R. (2020). The burden of climate hazards on the most affected people. Nature, 589(7838), 605-606. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-03258-5[3] Grant, L. D., Boykoff, M., Brown, M., Mora, C., Rohatyn, S. E., Thorncrant, J. M., & Flunger, M. K. (2020). Generational exposure to unprecedented heat stress and drought. Nature, 589(7838), 122-126. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2628-y[4] Nature[5] McCarthy, J. J., Thompson, A. M., & Hurd, M. M. (2019). Hotter days, hotter nights. Science, 364(6442), 727-728. doi:10.1126/science.aaw2883
Keywords:- Extreme Weather- Heat Wave- Global Warming- Climate Change- Generational Impact- Socioeconomic Vulnerability
- The study reveals that individuals born in 2020 could face greater likelihoods of experiencing severe heatwaves, underscoring the generational impact of climate change.
- In a 1.5°C scenario, around 120 million individuals born in 2020 might be exposed to unprecedented heatwave stress, compared to only 16% of those born in 1960.
- The journal, "Nature," published a study led by Luke Grant from Vrije Universiteit in Brussels, shedding light on the personal impacts of extreme weather events on individuals.
- If efforts are made to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, approximately 613 million people born between 2003 and 2020 could be spared from experiencing unprecedented heatwave stress.
- The disparity in climate vulnerability is not only between nations but also within them, as socioeconomically vulnerable children face a disproportionately higher risk of exposure to heatwaves, regardless of their country of origin.
- The study acknowledges certain limitations, like the exclusion of internal migration factors, but it underlines the urgent need for comprehensive and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the burden of today's young generation from climate change.
