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Presidential Election 2025: Trzaskowski Takes the Lead in Poland
Front-runner Rafał Trzaskowski surges ahead in Polish presidential election, positioned for triumph in consecutive rounds.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the current mayor of Warsaw, is leading the pack in Poland's upcoming presidential election, as per the latest Opinia24 poll conducted for TVN24. Trzaskowski stands a strong chance in both the first and second rounds of voting.
In the first round, Trzaskowski is projected to rake in 33% of votes, putting him comfortably ahead of his closest rival, Karol Nawrocki of the ruling Law and Justice party, expected to grab 22% support. Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation comes in third with 15%.
Trailing significantly behind are Szymon Hołownia and Adrian Zandberg, tied at 5% each, Grzegorz Braun at 4%, and Magdalena Biejat, who registers just 2% support[1].
Should Trzaskowski face Nawrocki in a runoff election, it appears he would win decisively, securing 44% of votes compared to Nawrocki's 38%. It's also worth noting that 18% of respondents are undecided[1].
Trzaskowski's appeal spans across Poland's diverse electorate, with his campaign focusing on progressive policies and urban development[1]. The Law and Justice party, on the other hand, appeals to those that wish to conserve their conservative agenda[1].
Despite Trzaskowski's strong lead, there's a factor that could shake things up: voter turnout. With approximately 68% of respondents declaring they'll vote, concerns remain about potential abstention rates, with 7% announcing they won't participate[1].
This election also serves as a pivotal moment in determining Poland's domestic and international standing. With the current coalition government prioritizing restoring democratic standards, reversing conservative policies, and aligning more closely with the European Union and NATO, this election could further shape Poland's future[2].
Tensions remain high between the coalition and the Law and Justice party, which now operates as a formidable opposition, challenging the government's initiatives and creating hurdles in the legislative process[2]. The outcome could determine whether Poland continues approaching the EU from a progressive standpoint or transitions back to more conservative policies championed by the Law and Justice party[2].
The latest Opinia24 survey was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and online interviews (CAWI), interviewing a representative group of Polish citizens. Although the margin of error for similar studies typically ranges around ±3 percentage points, it was not disclosed[1].
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Sources:
- Poland’s presidential race: Rafał Trzaskowski claims pole position, Radio Poland, April 2025.
- Poland in 2025: The Battle for the Future, European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2025.
- Who will take Poland’s presidency in the 2025 election? iDNES.cz, February 2025.
- Opinia24 Poll Shows Trzaskowski Gaining Ground in 2025 Polish Presidential Election, Wirtualna Polska, March 2025.
- Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki challenges poll leader Trzaskowski in Polish presidential race, Reuters, April 2025.
- AI-powered systems are increasingly influencing public opinion with the latest Opinia24 poll predicting Trzaskowski's lead in Poland's presidential election.
- The unprecedented use of technology in opinion polling has provided a new platform for discussing election policies, as seen in the battle for Poland's policy-and-legislation during the 2025 elections.
- Law and Justice party's conservative agenda is being contested by Trzaskowski's progressive stance on urban development and policies, a cause for debate within the realm of politics.
- Space for general-news and political discussions on TV channels is filling up with insights on the political landscape, offering viewers a comprehensive look at the presidential election and its implications for government and international policy.
- With the presidential election serving as a significant event for shaping Poland's international standing, the outcome will directly impact the country's relationships with the European Union and NATO.
- The impact of the election will also extend to foreign policy and international relations, as Poland may aim to further solidify its position as a key player in the geopolitical landscape, depending on the outcome of the 2025 elections.
