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Front-runner Rafał Trzaskowski moves closer to assure triumph in both rounds of Poland's Presidential Election

Polish presidential election contender, Rafał Trzaskowski, representing the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) and the current mayor of Warsaw, is currently leading in the race, as suggested by the recent Opinia24 poll taken for TVN24. The findings indicate that Trzaskowski would triumph in...

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In the impending Polish presidential election, Rafał Trzaskowski, the contender from the Civic...
In the impending Polish presidential election, Rafał Trzaskowski, the contender from the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) and the current mayor of Warsaw, is gathering significant support. The recent Opinia24 poll commissioned by TVN24 indicates that Trzaskowski is the preferred choice for the presidency, potentially winning both rounds of the vote, thereby reinforcing his strongstanding position.

Front-runner Rafał Trzaskowski moves closer to assure triumph in both rounds of Poland's Presidential Election

Poland's 2025 Presidential Election: Trzaskowski Takes a Lead Ahead of Runoff

Rafał Trzaskowski, the mainstream candidate and mayor of Warsaw, is emerging as the clear front-runner in Poland's presidential election, as per the latest Opinia24 poll. Conducted for TVN24, the survey predicts that Trzaskowski will lead in both the first and second rounds of voting.

In the initial round, Trzaskowski is projected to receive 33% of the votes, comfortably ahead of his nearest competitor, Karol Nawrocki of the ruling Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) party with 22%. Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation party (Konfederacja) follows closely with 15%.

Other candidates trail significantly. Szymon Hołownia, speaker of the Sejm, and Adrian Zandberg from Razem are tied at 5% each. Grzegorz Braun, from Konfederacja, holds 4%, while Magdalena Biejat of Lewica registers just 2% support.

If the elections proceed to a runoff, Trzaskowski is expected to win decisively against Nawrocki, with 44% of votes, while Nawrocki would secure 38%. Notably, 18% of voters remain undecided. This trend mirrors previous polls that show Trzaskowski as a strong contender against potential second-round opponents.

The data suggests Trzaskowski's broad appeal across Poland's diverse electorate. His campaign focuses on progressive policies and urban development, leveraging his success as Warsaw's mayor, while Nawrocki's platform emphasizes continuity with the Law and Justice party's conservative agenda.

A key concern for elections centres around voter turnout. Approximately 68% of respondents claim they are certain to vote in May's election, with another 21% likely to participate. However, there are worries about potential high abstention rates, as 7% will not vote.

This election follows a significant political shift during the 2023 parliamentary elections. The conservative Law and Justice party, in power for eight years, lost its parliamentary majority despite the largest share of votes. This paved the way for a coalition of opposition parties, including Civic Coalition, to form a new government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The new coalition's priority is to restore democratic standards, reverse PiS-era policies, and strengthen Poland's ties with the European Union and NATO. Tensions remain high due to ongoing polarization between the coalition and PiS, now opposition, with President Andrzej Duda continuing to challenge the government's initiatives. This election is crucial, as it may determine whether Poland continues its pro-European trajectory or reverts to conservative policies championed by PiS.

The Opinia24 survey was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and online interviews (CAWI), sampling a representative group of Polish citizens. The margin of error for similar studies typically ranges around ±3 percentage points.

  1. The upcoming 2025 Polish Presidential Election is increasingly showing a clear frontrunner, Rafał Trzaskowski, who is predicted to win both the first and second rounds of voting, as per the Opinia24 poll conducted for TVN24.
  2. In the first round, Trzaskowski is projected to secure 33% of the votes, while Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice party trails with 22%.
  3. The ongoing space of politics in Poland is marked by widespread opinions, with other candidates such as Szymon Hołownia and Adrian Zandberg trailing at 5% each.
  4. The outcome of the elections may have significant implications for Poland's relationship with the EU and NATO, as the new government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, aims to restore democratic standards and reverse Law and Justice (PiS) era policies.
  5. The general news of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election highlights the importance of voter turnout, as opinions remain divided, with approximately 68% of respondents certain to vote, and another 21% likely to participate.
  6. The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in the arena of policy-and-legislation might be crucial in analyzing and predicting voting trends, ensuring elections run smoothly and fairly, thus safeguarding justice and the principles of the government and law.

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