Frigid temperatures are making their way across the Atlantic due to the polar vortex.
Headline: Brace for a Colder and Snowier Winter Across the United States in 2025/2026
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a warning for an especially harsh winter, particularly on the East Coast of the U.S., during January 2025. This prediction is part of a larger forecast suggesting a weaker-than-normal polar vortex for the upcoming winter season of 2025/2026, which typically leads to a more dynamic, colder, and snowier winter pattern across the U.S. and Canada.
The weak polar vortex scenario is supported by several global factors, including the easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which favors disruptions in the stratospheric vortex. This could result in different cold air outbreaks depending on the position and shape of the vortex.
Two main patterns of polar vortex displacement can occur. One pushes the vortex toward western Canada, bringing intense cold to the Northwestern U.S., while another shifts it toward the North Atlantic, causing frigid air to spread across the Central and Eastern U.S. Since 2015, there has been a trend toward colder winters in the Northwestern U.S. linked to a westward-shifted polar vortex.
The fall 2025 outlook shows warmer-than-normal temperatures in the western U.S. extending into the Midwest and Northeast during autumn. However, as the winter progresses, more cold fronts could come down from the northwest toward the eastern U.S., indicating earlier and possibly heavier snowfall in northern states. Precipitation is expected to be drier in the west-central U.S. and wetter in the eastern U.S.
Residents in the Northwest may experience intense cold spells, while central and eastern U.S. regions could see more frequent frigid episodes and snow, especially as the winter progresses. Notably, sub-zero temperatures are anticipated in regions typically not accustomed to such cold, such as Florida and Texas, potentially dropping as low as 17°F. Even Minnesota might experience bone-chilling lows around -13°F.
It is important to note that a weak polar vortex can potentially shift southward, causing cold waves in North America, Russia, and parts of Europe. The overall pattern is influenced by a weak La Niña or neutral conditions, affecting jet stream configuration and polar vortex behavior.
A reminder of the potential impacts of a strong polar vortex event comes from the last major unstable polar vortex in 2022, which resulted in fatalities and power outages, with about 1.5 million homes losing power across both America and Canada.
Stay tuned for more updates as the winter season approaches, and remember to prepare for the colder and snowier weather ahead.
References:
- Fall 2025 Outlook Shows Warmer-Than-Normal Temperatures in the Western U.S.
- Two Main Patterns of Polar Vortex Displacement
- Weak Polar Vortex Scenario for Winter 2025/2026
- Influence of a Weak La Niña or Neutral Conditions on Jet Stream Configuration and Polar Vortex Behavior
- Impacts of the 2022 Unstable Polar Vortex on the U.S.
The National Weather Service's prediction of a weaker-than-normal polar vortex for the winter season of 2025/2026 suggests that the environmental-science field may study the potential impacts of this scenario on the science of weather, particularly in relation to the cold and snowy pattern across the United States. As a result, scientists might focus on understanding how global factors like the easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the potential southward shift of the weak polar vortex could affect various regions, including areas not typically accustomed to such cold temperatures, like Florida and Texas.
