"Friendship emerges after conflict": Trump celebrates United States-mediated Armenia-Azerbaijan truce agreement
In a significant development, Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement, marking the most substantive attempt at a comprehensive settlement of their decades-long conflict. The agreement, signed in 2025, commits both countries to permanently cease hostilities, open full diplomatic relations, and respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Key details of the agreement include the end of OSCE Minsk Group mediation and the U.S.'s securing of a 99-year exclusive corridor development right through the South Caucasus. This move increases U.S. influence over key east-west transport routes and energy projects, reducing Russia and Iran’s regional power and supporting Turkey, a NATO ally.
Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan pitches the deal as guaranteeing security and stability after decades of war. However, it represents a strategic westward shift away from reliance on Russia and risks compromising Armenia’s sovereignty due to U.S. control over some territory. The deal has faced criticism domestically and from the Armenian diaspora, particularly over unresolved issues such as Armenian POWs and the rights of Armenians displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh.
The agreement has drawn interest from nine companies, including three U.S. firms, for the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. The deal also includes expanded cooperation on energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence. However, Russia is likely to be irritated by being excluded from the agreement and the U.S. role in the corridor, according to Tina Dolbaia.
The European Union offers support, hoping it will foster peaceful regional development. Iran views the accord cautiously, fearing foreign intervention near its borders might undermine regional security. Despite commitments, unresolved grievances including border disputes and constitutional issues may still trigger future conflict, potentially destabilizing Armenia's relations with Russia and Iran, complicating broader South Caucasus dynamics.
The agreement, if it holds, would be a significant accomplishment for the Trump administration. Both Azerbaijan and Armenian leaders praised Trump for helping to end the conflict and said they would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the deal also raises questions about which U.S. companies might control the new transit corridor and how involved Armenia and Azerbaijan would be in its construction. Olesya Vartanyan, an independent regional expert, noted that the deal adds greater predictability to the region, but its long-term prospects would depend on continued U.S. engagement.
Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and adviser to Loyola University's Chicago School of Law, stated that the agreement would help the West crack down on Russian efforts to evade sanctions. Daphne Panayotatos, with the Washington-based rights group Freedom Now, urged the Trump administration to use the meeting with Aliyev to demand the release of some 375 political prisoners held in Azerbaijan.
The peace agreement aims to boost bilateral economic ties after decades of conflict. The agreement was signed during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal, if successful, could transform the energy-producing region, which is criss-crossed by oil and gas pipelines but riven by closed borders and longstanding ethnic conflicts.
- The U.S.-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed in 2025, extends beyond conflict resolution to include a significant development in finance, as it secures a 99-year exclusive corridor development right for select companies, particularly three U.S. firms, in the South Caucasus.
- The agreement, dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, serves as a platform for expanded cooperation on industries such as artificial intelligence, energy, and trade, but it has generated concern, especially among Russia and Iran, over potential compromises of regional power and sovereignty.
- While the new peace agreement presents an opportunity for increased economic ties between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the U.S., it also raises questions about the control of the new transit corridor and the level of involvement of Armenia and Azerbaijan in its construction, with experts suggesting that resolving these questions would be essential for the agreement's long-term prospects.
