Free Agent Shuffling Alters Stanley Cup Probabilities in NHL
The 2025 NHL free agency period, which opened yesterday, has brought a flurry of activity, reshaping team dynamics and Stanley Cup odds for the upcoming season. Here's a round-up of some of the most significant moves:
The Florida Panthers, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, have retained their core free agents, securing forwards Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and defenseman Aaron Ekblad. These signings have reinforced their championship roster continuity, further solidifying their status as favourites for the upcoming season [1][2][3]. As a result, their Stanley Cup odds have improved from +750 to +600, marking them as contenders to contend again for the title [2].
The Vegas Golden Knights made a major splash by acquiring star forward Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs via a sign-and-trade deal. Marner, coming off a career-high 102 points, is expected to boost their top line alongside Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev, addressing scoring depth concerns after their previous playoff exit [1][2]. Although specific odds shifts were not detailed, this acquisition has considerably enhanced their offensive capabilities, boosting their championship prospects.
The New York Rangers improved their Stanley Cup odds slightly, moving from 33/1 to 28/1 after the opening day of free agency. The team signed restricted free agent Will Cuylle to a two-year deal, while also making other strategic moves [2].
St. Louis Blues added Pius Suter on a two-year deal, a versatile forward expected to contribute secondary scoring and strong defensive play, aiming to solidify their playoff push in 2025-26 [4].
The Boston Bruins' free agency moves have been seen as underwhelming, with their signings such as Sean Kuraly and Mikey Eyssimont viewed as depth additions rather than game-changers. The team's acquisition of Tanner Jeannot to a five-year, $3.4 million AAV contract has been widely criticized as excessive for a depth forward with limited offensive upside [5].
Los Angeles Kings signed forwards Joel Armia (two years, $2.5 million AAV) and Corey Perry ($3.5 million) and defenseman Brian Dumoulin to a three-year, $4 million AAV contract. Armia, a 6'3" forward, adds depth to their bottom-six and provides potential for a middle-six role. The team also signed defenseman Cody Ceci to a four-year, $4.5 million AAV contract [6].
The Oilers have only made one notable addition during the free agency period, Andrew Mangiapane, who they hope will fit in alongside Leon Draisaitl on Edmonton's second line. However, they were unable to keep Connor Brown or Corey Perry during the free agency period [7]. The team did not acquire John Gibson from Anaheim, as they were not in a position to absorb his entire contract ($6.4 million). They currently have Stuart Skinner as their goalie, who is in the final year of his deal (2.6 million) [8].
In other news, the New York Rangers signed Vladislav Gavrikov to a seven-year, $49 million contract, while the Los Angeles Kings signed Anton Forsberg as the backup goalie to Darcy Kuemper [9][10].
With these moves, the 2025-26 Stanley Cup race is shaping up to be a dynamic one, with Florida’s retention of top players solidifying their status as front-runners, while Vegas's aggressive move for Marner positions them as strong contenders. Other teams like St. Louis and New York have made strategic additions to improve playoff potential, all contributing to an exciting season ahead [1][2][3][4].
[1] https://www.nhl.com/news/2025-nhl-free-agency-tracker/c-320410378 [2] https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/34669817/nhl-free-agency-tracker-signings-trades-rumors-2025 [3] https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/news/nhl-free-agency-tracker-2025/ [4] https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/nhl-free-agency-tracker-2025-updates-on-every-signing-trade-rumor/ [5] https://www.bostonherald.com/2025/sports/nhl/boston-bruins/2025/07/20/boston-bruins-free-agency-signings-tanner-jeannot-sean-kuraly-mikey-eyssimont/ [6] https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/story/2025-07-21/los-angeles-kings-sign-forwards-joel-armia-corey-perry-defenseman-brian-dumoulin [7] https://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-free-agency-tracker-2025 [8] https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers-stanley-cup-odds-2025-free-agency-1.6132381 [9] https://www.nyrangers.com/news/new-york-rangers-sign-vladislav-gavrikov-to-seven-year-contract [10] https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/story/2025-07-21/los-angeles-kings-sign-goalie-anton-forsberg
Expert picks for the 2025-26 Stanley Cup race now favor the Florida Panthers, whose retention of top players like Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Aaron Ekblad has improved their odds from +750 to +600. The Vegas Golden Knights, on the other hand, have boosted their offensive capabilities with the acquisition of Mitch Marner, though their specific odds shifts were not detailed.
