Ceasefire Push in Ukraine: A Coalition Effort
France's President Macron announces that the United States will be keeping a watch on the proposed ceasefire in Ukraine.
As we stand today, May 10, 2025, Ukraine is backed by key European allies, pushing for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, commencing next week. In a joint statement, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced their readiness for a "full, unconditional ceasefire" on land, air, and at sea for at least 30 days[1][2].
Crucial Factors:
- International Support: Macron, Merz, Tusk, Starmer, and Trump have united in supporting Ukraine, working together to force Russia to agree to the ceasefire[1]. With the USA taking charge of the monitoring responsibilities, European nations have also agreed to contribute to the effort[1].
- Peace Negotiations: A successful implementation of the ceasefire would pave the way for meaningful peace negotiations[2]. Effective monitoring is essential for building trust and creating sustainable confidence-building measures[2].
Past Violations:
Regrettably, recent negotiations, such as the three-day ceasefire declared unilaterally by Russia to mark the end of World War II, have been met with accusations of violations from both sides. Ukraine has accused Russian forces of repeatedly breaching the truce[1][3].
Monitoring Mechanisms
The specifics of the monitoring plan are not yet comprehensive. However, effective monitoring is vital to the success of the ceasefire and avoiding further violations. Common practices for monitoring ceasefires include the deployment of international observers and peacekeeping forces to oversee compliance and report breaches.
Upcoming Developments:
- Coalition of the Willing: There are ongoing discussions about forming a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine's armed forces after a peace agreement with Russia is reached[1]. This coalition may potentially involve troop deployments for enforcing a future peace agreement[1].
[1] ntv.de
[2] dpa
[3] AFP
Key Figures
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Keir Starmer
- Friedrich Merz
- Donald Tusk
- Volodymyr Zelensky
- The Commission has also been asked to submit a proposal for a regulation on the monitoring of the 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, which will be overseen by an international coalition, including Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk.
- In light of past violations, effective monitoring of the ceasefire in Ukraine is crucial, with potential measures involving the deployment of international observers and peacekeeping forces to report breaches, similar to common practices in war-and-conflicts politics.
- If successful, the ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to peace negotiations, potentially paving the way for a future coalition of the willing to support Ukraine's armed forces after a peace agreement with Russia is reached, possibly involving troop deployments.
- The Ukrainian government, led by Volodymyr Zelensky, has been part of the coalition effort to push for a ceasefire with Russia, which has been met with accusations of violations from both sides in the past, such as the three-day ceasefire declared during the end of World War II.
