FPÖ experiences significant growth while SPÖ suffers a decline in representation.
In the recent Vienna election, the SPÖ has kept its prime spot, but there's been a shift in the political landscape. As per an initial prediction by Foresight/Hajek, the SPÖ is estimated to garner around 37% of votes, a slight drop from the 2020 election.
The FPÖ, however, has seen a remarkable surge, gaining three times more votes (23.5%) compared to their previous showing. The Greens follow closely behind with 12.5%, ahead of the ÖVP (11.5%) and the NEOS (8.5%).
According to this forecast, both the KPOÖ and Team Strache are unlikely to clear the five-percent hurdle and join the city council. However, the KPOÖ still holds theoretical chances of reaching the required percentage.
A coalition between the SPÖ and NEOS wouldn't secure a majority of seats as per this prediction. Alternatively, alliances with the SPÖ and either the Greens or ÖVP could be feasible.
This trend forecast, based on independent polls, has a margin of error of up to +/-3.0 percentage points. Around 3,600 interviews with eligible voters in Vienna were conducted for the trend forecast – roughly 2,000 online and 1,600 by phone.
Compared to the 2020 Vienna city council election, the SPÖ has experienced a minor loss, while the FPÖ, which was previously hit hard by the Ibiza scandal, has made a notable recovery. In 2020, the Social Democrats obtained 41.6% of the votes, while the FPÖ managed only 7.1% at the time.
In the 2025 Vienna municipal elections, the SPÖ leads the pack, but the political landscape is reshaping, with the FPÖ making a strong comeback. Potential coalition formations are up for grabs, as the SPÖ aims to form alliances and maintain its leadership role in Vienna's government.
Enrichment Insights:In the post-2025 Vienna city council, the SPÖ remains the leading party, capturing 43 seats out of 100 in the council. The FPÖ, following its significant resurgence, becomes the second-largest party with 20.4% of votes[3][5]. The Greens maintain almost the same performance as in 2020, securing 14% of the vote[3][5]. The ÖVP slumps to 9.7%, and the NEOS's improved performance strengthens their position in negotiations, scoring 9.8%[3].
Potential coalitions include a continuation of the SPÖ and NEOS alliance, or alternative partnerships with the Greens or ÖVP[3][5]. Overall, the SPÖ is likely to remain in leadership, shaping Vienna's government through strategic alliances.
- The FPÖ's notable recovery, after being hit hard by the Ibiza scandal in the 2020 Vienna city council election, has resulted in a significant increase in votes, marking a loss for the SPÖ compared to their previous election.
- The political landscape of the post-2025 Vienna city council is reshaped, with the FPÖ becoming the second-largest party, while the SPÖ, though maintaining its leading position, is likely to form strategic alliances to secure its leadership role in Vienna's government.
