Sky-high Fossil CO2 Emissions Persist
The agreed-upon reduction in fossil CO2 emissions, as outlined in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, has yet to be achieved. Instead, carbon emissions continue to climb, hitting an all-time high this year. The 1.5-degree target becomes increasingly distant, but experts see glimmers of hope.
Recent surge in CO2 emissions
Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas continue to fuel this upward trend in emissions. Experts project that CO2 emissions from these sources will reach an unprecedented 36.8 billion tons annually by 2023 - a 1.1% increase from 2022 and 1.4% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.
According to Pierre Friedlingstein, lead researcher from the University of Exeter (UK), "Climate change impacts are all around us, but action to lower carbon emissions from fossil fuels moves at a snail's pace." The Global Carbon Budget report, co-authored by more than 120 experts, supports this conclusion. It was published in the journal "Earth System Science Data."
Perilous approach to 1.5-degree target
The report reveals that the proportion of greenhouse gas CO2 in the atmosphere will surpass 419.3 ppm in 2023, a 51% rise compared to 1750. Julia Pongratz, lead author from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, laments that "it looks like we'll overshoot the 1.5-degree target - and the consequences of climate change that we've already witnessed serve as a grim reminder of how severe those consequences can be."
The goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference is to prevent the global temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, the report indicates that we'll exhaust the remaining 50% probability CO2 budget needed to achieve this goal by 2027 at the 2023 emission rate. To limit global warming to 1.7 degrees, the budget would last till 2041, while a 2-degree limit would provide us until 2065.
Escalating emissions from China and India
Researchers report that China, responsible for 31% of global fossil CO2 emissions, saw a 4% increase in these emissions in 2023. Conversely, the USA decreased its emissions by 3.0%, and the EU witnessed a decrease of 7.4%. Indias emissions, now surpassing the EU's level, rose by 8.2%.
The report does not provide data on Germany's emissions for 2023. In 2022, however, Germany reduced its CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by 1.9%. Even so, given that Germany has already reduced its CO2 emissions by 36.8% since 1990 to 0.67 billion tons, the need for further reductions remains.
Slow progress in reforestation
The experts also focused on land use-change, particularly deforestation. In 2023, an estimated 4.1 billion tons of CO2 were released into the atmosphere due to land use change. Although this is slightly lower than the average of 4.7 billion tons from 2013 to 2022, reforestation efforts have not fully offset the annual emissions of 4.2 billion tons from permanent deforestation.
Direct Air Capture and Storage: A promising solution
While technologies like Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) currently only manage to remove 0.00001 billion tons of CO2, fossil fuel experts like Jan Minx from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) in Berlin stress its importance. Minx explains that "to breathe a sigh of relief from climate damage of 1.5 degrees and not continuing with it, we need these technologies."
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Enrichment Data:
- Trends in Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
- 2024 Emissions: Record-breaking CO2 emissions continue to rise, exceeding 2023 levels.
- Projected CO2 Emissions in 2025
- Met Office estimates a less extreme rise in CO2 for 2025 with an increase of 2.26 ppm (with a margin of uncertainty of ±0.56 ppm).
- Global Coal Demand
- Global coal demand reached new highs in 2023, driven primarily by the power sector. Emerging markets like China and India are major contributors.
- Renewable Energy Growth
- Renewable energy capacity surged by more than 560 GW in 2023. Despite this, regions like Europe and North America struggle to meet net-zero targets.
- Progress Towards the 1.5-Degree Target
- Given the current trend, global temperatures will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2024. Enacting policies and meeting national commitments made under the Paris Agreement are crucial to limiting global warming.
