Forecasts Predict Hefty to Extremely Heavy Rainfall in Uttarakhand, Assam, Telangana, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Jammu & Kashmir
Monsoon Activity in India: Active Phase Predicted for August 13-18
India is set to experience an active phase of monsoon rainfall from August 13 to 18, 2025, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This period is expected to bring widespread heavy to very heavy rains across numerous regions, driven by multiple cyclonic circulations and a developing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
Overall Monsoon Rainfall Context
The August 2025 rainfall is expected to be within the normal range nationally, with 94% to 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The second half of the monsoon (August–September) is likely to see above-normal rainfall (>106% LPA) over most of India, except parts of northeast, some central regions, and southwest peninsular India where below-normal rainfall is forecasted.
Cyclonic Activity and Weather Systems (Aug 13-18)
A low-pressure area is predicted to form over the west-central Bay of Bengal around August 13 and intensify over the next two days. Other cyclonic circulations exist over Central Bay of Bengal, North Interior Karnataka, Northwest Uttar Pradesh, and Northeast Assam. A Western Disturbance is influencing weather over North Pakistan and Jammu & Kashmir, prompting rain and thunderstorms in the northern states.
Regional Rainfall Patterns
| Region | Rainfall Pattern & Dates | Details | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Northwest India | Aug 13-18 | Isolated extremely heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand (especially Aug 13); heavy to very heavy rainfall in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh (Aug 13-15); isolated heavy rainfall in Haryana, Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh. Light to moderate rain with thunderstorms throughout the week. | | North India (Rest) | Aug 13-18 | Intermittent heavy showers in Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh; active monsoon trough northward near Himalayas drives rainfall. | | Central and East India| Aug 13-17 | Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in Madhya Pradesh (including West MP on Aug 17), Vidarbha, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh with fresh spells from mid-August; isolated very heavy rains on Aug 13-14 in Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. | | South Peninsular India| Aug 13-18 | Telangana to experience isolated extremely heavy rainfall (Aug 13-14); coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Telangana to get isolated heavy to very heavy rains. | | Northeast India | Aug 13 | Very heavy rainfall likely in Assam; a cyclonic circulation contributes to rains in this region. | | Western & Central India| General forecasts indicate continuation of rainfall activities in some regions due to monsoon progress, but specific details focus more on north, east, and south. |
Impact and Influencing Factors
The active phase of monsoon from August 13 to 18 is supported by the positioning of cyclonic circulations and an active monsoon trough north of usual, promoting widespread and intense rainfall. The developing low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is a key factor boosting rainfall in east and southeast parts. The Western Disturbance enhances precipitation in Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining northern regions.
Summary
From August 13 to 18, 2025, India is expected to witness widespread heavy to very heavy rains, with regional variations:
- Northern states (Uttarakhand, Himachal, J&K) get heavy showers including isolated extremely heavy rainfall.
- Eastern and Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh) see fresh heavy rainfall spells.
- South India (Telangana, coastal Andhra) experience isolated intense downpours.
- Several cyclonic circulations and a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal will maintain strong monsoon activity.
- The overall rainfall for August remains normal, with a trend toward above-normal in the latter half of the monsoon season.
Weather forecasting for the specified period, August 13-18, 2025, predicts widespread heavy to very heavy rains across numerous regions in India, due to the presence of multiple cyclonic circulations and the development of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. The active phase of monsoon rainfall during these dates is supported by the positioning of these cyclonic circulations and the active monsoon trough north of its usual location, promoting widespread and intense rainfall.
