Forecasting Madrid Open Clash: Coco Gauff versus Aryna Sabalenka - Odds analysis, preview, and top wagers
Ready for a thrilling showdown, folks? On Saturday, May 3rd, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open. This match promises a load of excitement as these two have had a rocky relationship on the court, particularly in major tournaments. They've locked horns in a few finals before, with both players showing their mettle.
Last year at the WTA Finals, Gauff managed to defeat Sabalenka in the semifinals, setting the stage for an impressive run to the championship. But keep in mind, while Gauff stole the limelight at the end of the 2024 season, it's Sabalenka who's been tearing it up this year.
So buckle up for a entertaining clash in Spain. If you're eager for more tennis predictions, swing by the VSiN picks page. I'll keep you updated with picks every couple of hours, including plays for smaller tournaments.
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sports book and accurate as of Friday, May 2nd at 2:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -125, Gauff +100
Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 (-110), Gauff +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-125), Under 21.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain
When: Saturday, May 3rd at 12:30 pm ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Notes
Glance at the VSiN picks page before the tournament, and you might have noticed I risked 1.5 units to win 6 units on Sabalenka to win this tournament at +400. So, I'm not here to go big on Sabalenka again - instead, I'll be looking for opportunities to hedge my bets. If I see Gauff available at +130 or so at any point, I'll probably throw a 2-unit play on the American to guarantee myself some profits here.
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
Social media can be relentless, especially when it comes to Sabalenka and her three final losses since early 2025. But let's not lose sight of what truly matters: Sabalenka's big wins in Brisbane and Miami, and reaching five finals in just four months is no small feat. Now, she's heading into her sixth final of the season, facing Gauff for the Madrid Open title. Picking a winner isn't easy, but Sabalenka's consistency, aggressive style, and solid form this season make her hard to overlook.
Gauff, on the other hand, has been phenomenal in Madrid, especially with her convincing win over Iga Swiatek. When her serve and forehand are firing on all cylinders, she looks unstoppable. However, Gauff's occasional dips in form, as seen in tournaments like Indian Wells and Miami, make her a risky choice against someone as reliable as Sabalenka.
Even if Sabalenka falls short, her recent run of form is impressive, and she's adaptable with an improved game on clay courts. With her power, improved movement, and comfort on Madrid's clay, Sabalenka is as complete a player as you'll find right now. That said, you should be willing to lose on the right side. You won't find many opportunities to bet on Sabalenka as a small favorite like this the rest of the season. So, I suggest ignoring the reverse line movement and backing the better player. If you take Gauff and she loses, you'll definitely regret it.
Match Lean: Sabalenka ML (-118)
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[1] Coco Gauff Ousts Iga Swiatek to Reach Madrid Open Final: https://www.si.com/tennis/2025/05/02/coco-gauff-igia-swiatek-madrid-open-final-semifinals-2025-odds-picks
[2] 2025 Madrid Open: Coco Gauff advance to final, face Aryna Sabalenka for title: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2025/05/02/madrid-open-tennis-2025-live-updates-coco-gauff-aryna-sabalenka-final/7553876002/
[3] 2025 Madrid Open Final: The Finest Ladies Matchup: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka: https://www.insider.com/tennis/2025/5/2/madrid-open-coco-gauff-aryna-sabalenka-final
[4] Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds, Picks, Predictions: Madrid Open Final Betting Preview: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10060757-coco-gauff-vs-aryna-sabalenka-odds-picks-predictions-madrid-open-final-betting-preview
The final of the Mutua Madrid Open will feature a rekindling of the rivalry between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka. This match promises a thrilling showdown, as both players have had a rocky relationship on the court, particularly in major tournaments. Sabalenka is currently tearing it up this year, even though Gauff outshined her at the end of the 2024 season. The Moneyline odds favor Sabalenka, with a betting spread, total games, and multiple opportunities for hedging predictions available. While Gauff's convincing win over Iga Swiatek is noteworthy, her occasional lapses in form and Sabalenka's consistency, aggressive play, and solid form this season make the Belarusian the tougher competitor to overlook.
