Forecasted Oscar Predictions by Feinberg Post-Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and Emmys Update: Scott's Analysis
The film industry is abuzz with excitement as the race for the 98th Oscars begins to take shape. Several films have already made a strong impression at prestigious festivals, and the focus is now on these contenders.
At the 50th Toronto Film Festival, two Netflix productions, Frankenstein and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, placed second and third, respectively. Meanwhile, The Secret Agent has been performing well at festival and industry screenings, putting it in the running for several awards.
Netflix's A House of Dynamite is expected to spark conversation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The film, directed by Kathryn Bigelow, is a directing tour-de-force and true ensemble piece. It has already been screened by journalists in LA, and its thought-provoking subject matter is likely to resonate with audiences.
Toni Servillo was chosen as best actor for La Grazia at the 79th Venice Film Festival. Another standout performance came from Benny Safdie, who was named best director for The Smashing Machine at the same event. The Golden Lion, Venice's top prize, was awarded to Father Mother Sister Brother (Mubi).
The current favorites for the Best International Feature Film Oscar include the Brazilian film The Secret Agent by Kleber Mendonça Filho. This powerful drama has received high critical acclaim and ranks among the frontrunners along with entries from Norway (Sentimental Value), Iran (A Simple Accident), and Germany (Looking Towards the Sun). Notable contenders from the recent 2025 Oscar season were Holy Fig Tree by Iranian-born Mohammad Rasulof (Germany's official submission) and Forever Here by Brazilian Walter Salles, though Forever Here was favored over Holy Fig Tree.
Agnieszka Holland's latest film, Kafka, is the latest addition to her impressive portfolio. Holland has had films chosen to represent Poland, West Germany, and the Czech Republic in the past, and Kafka is expected to be no exception. Poland has entered Kafka (still seeking U.S. distribution) for the best international feature Oscar competition.
In other news, Chloe Zhao's Hamnet (Focus) won the audience award at the 50th Toronto Film Festival. Jennifer Lopez attended a post-screening Q&A for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside).
Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) is currently screening in LA, adding another intriguing contender to the mix. As the Oscars draw near, the competition is heating up, and the race to the finish is sure to be exciting.
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