Forecasted NHL Games: Insights from Specialists on Tuesday, 6th May
Title: NHL Predictions - Expert Picks on Tuesday, May 6: An Unbiased Analysis
Carolina Hurricanes (-135, 5.5) at Washington Capitals
Series Price: Carolina Hurricanes (-180) Washington Capitals ($)
Game One7 p.m. ET
Both squads are fresh from their opening-round series against relatively weaker opponents. The New Jersey Devils offered little resistance against the Hurricanes, while the Montreal Canadiens struggled to score against the Capitals' Logan Thompson, managing only two goals in four out of five games. Despite Thompson's exceptional play, the edge in goalkeeping goes to the Hurricanes with Rod Brind'Amour confirming that Frederik Andersen, who got hurt in Game Four, will play tonight. Although Andersen's stats in the first round were impressive (3-1, 1.59 GAA, .936 SV%), his consistency over prolonged playoff runs has been questionable.
Bookies are skeptical of the Capitals, with the Hurricanes being overwhelming series favorites at (-180). The Canes had the advantage in all regular-season games against the Capitals, and they were favorites twice on the road. It's important to note that the Canes lost both regular-season meetings in Washington. Based on my analysis, the value lies with the underdog Capitals, with home teams performing impressively in the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs (32-15). The counterargument is that the favorites have fared better (30-17). A major concern with the Hurricanes is their struggles to score at five-on-five. Against the Devils, Carolina was outscored 10-9 at full strength, but they flourished on special teams, going 5-for-15 on the power play and a perfect 15-for-15 on the penalty kill, scoring one short-handed goal. The Capitals managed just three power-play goals against Montreal in 13 opportunities (23.1%).
Time to delve into the prop plays. For the Hurricanes, Jackson Whiteside, who plays on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, presents value at plus money to pick up just one point. Whiteside, along with Seth Jarvis (power play 2), led the Canes in goals against the Caps during the regular season. For the Capitals, Connor McMichael and Anthony Beauvillier's shots-on-goal props look appealing. McMichael had three shots on goal in four of the five first-round games and had two or more shots on goal in three of the four regular-season games against the Caps. Beauvillier had two or more shots on goal in all but one game against the Canadiens and three or more times.
Game One Predictions:- Jackson Whiteside anytime goal: +270 - .10 units- Jackson Whiteside Over 1⁄2 point: +100 - .25 units- Capitals moneyline: +115 - .50 units- First-period Over 1.5 (-135) - .25 units- Full-game Over 5.5 (-135) -.25 units- Seth Jarvis anytime goal: +180 - .10 units- Jakob Chychrun anytime goal: +525 - .10 units- Connor McMichael anytime goal: +330 - .10 units- Connor McMichael Over 1.5 shots on goal (-170) - .25 units- Connor McMichael Over 2.5 shots on goal (+185) - .10 units- Anthony Beauvillier Over 1.5 shots on goal (-120) - .25 units- Anthony Beauvillier Over 2.5 shots on goal (+270) - .10 units
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights (-135, 6.5)
Series Price: Edmonton Oilers (-110) Vegas Golden Knights (-110)
Game One9:30 p.m. ET
As Connor McDavid stated, "We remember what happened two years ago, we owe them one." The stage is set for the long-awaited rematch between the Oilers and the Golden Knights. The Golden Knights open as favorites tonight, with the series evenly matched at pick-'em.
The biggest advantage goes to the Golden Knights' goaltending, with Adin Hill already boasting a couple of Stanley Cups under his belt, while the Oilers turn to journeyman Calvin Pickard, who took over from Stuart Skinner in the first round and has won four consecutive games in his place. Keeping up the momentum for Pickard remains uncertain. The Knights arguably possess the NHL's best defensemen, while the Oilers continue to miss top defenseman Mattias Ekholm.
This series is expected to produce plenty of goals, with a majority of their previous encounters featuring seven or more. In the 2021 playoffs, five out of six games had seven or more goals. Both teams were 9-3 to the full-game Over in the first round, and the Knights were 6-0 to the first-period Over.
Moving onto the player props, Corey Perry aligns with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the top line, offering great value for his anytime goal prop. Evander Kane finished the last four games with three points, and Evan Bouchard led the Oilers in goals during the first round with four. McDavid has netted three goals against Hill in their five meetings. On the Vegas side, I'm eyeing Ivan Barbashev and Reilly Smith further down the depth chart. Barbashev has scored three goals and six points in six career playoff games versus the Oilers, while Smith has five points in six playoff games against Edmonton. Shea Theodore has scored a couple of playoff goals, both of which were the first goal of the game.
Game One Predictions:- First-period Over 1.5 (-165) - .25 units- Full-game Over 6.5 (-120) - .25 units- Vegas Golden Knights team total Over 3.5 (+100) - .50 units- Corey Perry anytime goal: +290 - .10 units- Evander Kane Over 1⁄2 point: +146 - .15 units- Evan Bouchard anytime goal: +410 - .10 units- Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG: +128 - .15 units- Reilly Smith Over 1⁄2 point: +162 - .15 units- Ivan Barbashev Over 1⁄2 point: +285 - .15 units- Ivan Barbashev anytime goal: +300 - .15 units- Shea Theodore anytime goal: +600 - .10 units- Shea Theodore first goal of the game: +3400 - .10 units
- In Tuesday's NHL playoff game, the Capitals, despite the Hurricanes being favored, offer value at +115 on the moneyline.
- The Caps have shown impressive home performance in the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, winning 32 out of 47 games (three-quarter units on the Capitals).
- Jackson Whiteside, who plays on the top line and the No. 1 power-play unit for the Hurricanes, presents value at +270 for an anytime goal (two-tenths of a unit).
- The Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights are set to face off in a high-scoring match, with both teams showing strong performances in the over during their first-round games.
- In Game One, Ivan Barbashev of the Vegas Golden Knights could be a good pick for an anytime goal at +300 (one-fifteenth of a unit), as he has scored three goals in six career playoff games against the Oilers.
