Forecasted 23% Drop in Russia's Oil and Gas Income by 2025
Russia's oil and gas revenues have taken a significant hit in recent months, with September 2025 seeing a 23% year-over-year decline, according to projections. This marks a total revenue of $7.11 billion (592 billion rubles) in Europe.
The decline, which has been ongoing since the beginning of 2025, is attributed to several factors. Lower global crude prices, a strengthening ruble, widening price discounts on Russian crude grades, refinery disruptions, and international sanctions have all contributed to the diminishing revenues.
The impact of this decline is particularly significant for Russia's economic planning, especially as the country prepares its 2026 budget while continuing to finance its military operations in Ukraine. The first nine months of 2025 have seen energy-related income fall by approximately 20.5% compared to 2024.
August 2025 saw a particularly sharp drop in crude and fuel export revenue, with a decrease of $920 million compared to the previous month, reaching $13.51 billion-a multi-year low. This decline also poses particular challenges for Russia's continued financing of its military operations in Ukraine.
Despite sanctions, Russia still achieves high revenues from oil and gas exports, but the EU, US, and partners have imposed import bans on Russian oil by sea and set price caps to limit Russia’s earnings and hinder its war financing in Ukraine. As a result, Russian oil exports by sea to the EU have dropped significantly, with a Russian share falling from 29% to 2% in EU oil product imports by ship. EU plans to stop Russian LNG imports by 2027 are underway.
Export volumes have seen a mixed picture, with increases in Baltic Sea ports, Black Sea ports, Azov Sea ports, and some Arctic ports, while decreasing in others.
Russian crude grades are trading at increasingly wider discounts compared to international benchmarks, further exacerbating the revenue shortfall. For the January-September period in 2025, total oil and gas revenues are estimated at $79.6 billion (6.62 trillion rubles), representing a 20.5% decrease from the same period in 2024.
In conclusion, Russia's oil and gas revenues have seen a significant decline in 2025, posing serious challenges for economic planning and the financing of military operations in Ukraine. The country will need to adapt to these changes and find new strategies to maintain its economic stability.
