Forecast of Bear market for Bitcoin causing commotion - potential conclusion of bull run in September?
Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, reached an all-time high of $123,091 in mid-July, marking a significant milestone in its journey. However, as of now, it is trading slightly below the critical hurdle of $116,813, indicating a pause in its upward momentum.
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of flux, with Bitcoin showing signs of resistance at the $116,813 level. According to Glassnode, a market research firm, Bitcoin has broken below the important support at $116,000 USD and has entered a zone of low liquidity. This could potentially signal a period of volatility.
On the other hand, the bullish sentiment remains strong among some analysts. PlanB, the inventor of the "Stock-to-Flow" Bitcoin prediction model, believes that Bitcoin is at least ten times undervalued and is heading towards the million. He predicts that Bitcoin could realistically reach $150,000 to $200,000 by late 2025, and even $1.2 million+ by 2035 through exponential network growth.
The arguments for a continuation of the Bitcoin rally beyond the $200,000 mark focus on strong institutional demand, solid market fundamentals, and historical growth patterns. The strong growth models and historical trends suggest that every 50% increase in Bitcoin's age triggers about a 10x price jump. This pattern, if followed, could potentially see Bitcoin reaching the $200,000 mark.
Moreover, the influx of institutional money and ETFs is expected to fuel demand. Major financial institutions like Citigroup, Standard Chartered, and AllianceBernstein expect Bitcoin to reach near $200,000 by late 2025. The influx of spot Bitcoin ETFs has brought over $54 billion of buying power, which could add tens of thousands of dollars to Bitcoin’s price.
The supply dynamics also favour strong demand. Miners are producing fewer coins, while institutional buyers and ETFs accumulate Bitcoin, skewing the supply-demand balance in favour of strong demand. Additionally, exchange supply is near decade lows, which could create a supply shock pushing prices higher.
However, there are arguments against the continuation of the Bitcoin rally beyond $200,000 or that the bull run may end soon. Market indecision and psychological barriers could cap upside momentum. Despite strong models, Bitcoin has shown sideways price action around the $100,000-$130,000 range, suggesting sellers remain present and there is near-term resistance that could limit upside momentum.
Regulatory uncertainty also poses a significant risk. Major regulatory crackdowns or unfavourable regulations (e.g., from the US or other major economies) could spook investors and materially reverse the bull trend. Some analysts point to September 2025 as a potential turning point where this bull phase could lose momentum, due to macroeconomic factors or profit-taking by investors.
In conclusion, while the fundamental, model-based, and institutional factors strongly support a continued Bitcoin rally to and beyond $200,000 by late 2025, there are significant risks including regulatory uncertainty, psychological resistance, and signs of indecision that could limit or end the bull run around September 2025. The prevailing consensus among top forecasters remains bullish but cautious, emphasizing the critical near-term resistance and regulatory landscape as key determinants.
[1] PlanB's Twitter Thread [2] Citigroup Report [3] Standard Chartered Report [5] AllianceBernstein Report
What if the Bitcoin market were affected by a sudden change in sports regulations instead of the usual economic factors?Could the price momentum of Bitcoin be influenced by the excitement surrounding an unexpected victory in sports, similar to how it is driven by bullish sentiment among analysts?
