Forecast: Intense Rainfall Anticipated in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Kerala, and Others; IMD Alerts Multiple Regions
**Headline: Monsoon Season Off to a Wet Start: India Braces for Active July**
The monsoon season in India is shaping up to be an active one, with the Southwest Monsoon arriving early in 2025 and covering the entire country by June 29, nine days ahead of the usual July 8 date. This early onset has set a favourable stage for the season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for July 2025, with total rainfall expected to exceed 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July is around 280.4 mm, suggesting a wetter-than-usual month for India.
Regional rainfall patterns for July 2025 indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall in several key regions. South Peninsular India, including Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, is expected to see heavy rainfall in many areas, with some parts in the far south potentially receiving below-normal rainfall. Konkan & Goa are forecasted to experience very heavy rainfall, including isolated extremely heavy rainfall events.
Central India, including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Odisha, will experience dynamic weather due to an east-west shear line and cyclonic circulations, causing intense rainfall spells. Northern India, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Haryana, may see heavy rainfall events linked to low-pressure systems developing over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, potentially causing localized flooding.
However, Northeast India and East India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall in many areas in July, as are some parts of the far south of peninsular India and pockets of northwest India.
Temperature trends for July 2025 suggest normal to below-normal maximum temperatures over many regions, except in the northeast, some northern and eastern areas, and parts of the southern peninsula where temperatures may be above normal. Minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in most places, with some exceptions.
The first week of July 2025 is set to bring widespread monsoon activity across the country, with daytime and nighttime temperatures in Delhi/NCR remaining 1-3°C below normal, offering some respite from the typical July heat. Coastal and interior areas of southern India will experience strong winds of 40-50 kmph, particularly during afternoon and evening hours.
Ghat regions of Madhya Maharashtra are forecasted to receive extremely heavy rainfall on July 3, while Konkan & Goa are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. Southern parts of India, such as Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana, are forecasted to receive heavy to very heavy rain in pockets.
Several regions in Northeast India, including Meghalaya, will experience isolated extremely heavy showers on July 5 and 6. Several regions in East and Central India, including Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand, are set to receive consistent heavy to very heavy rainfall from July 3 to 6.
East Rajasthan in Northwest India is predicted to experience extremely heavy rainfall on July 3. Thunderstorms and lightning are expected to accompany the rains in Northeast India. The IMD has issued an extremely heavy rainfall warning for Madhya Maharashtra's ghat areas and fresh weather alerts predicting widespread rainfall across various parts of India.
With the active monsoon season, regions are advised to remain alert for potential flash floods or waterlogging, as accompanies by thunder, lightning, and gusty winds reaching 30-40 kmph. Overall, the 2025 Southwest Monsoon is progressing robustly with a positive rainfall outlook for July, including periods of heavy monsoon rains across many key regions in India, while a few regions are expected to receive less than normal precipitation.
Weather forecasters at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predict an active monsoon season in July 2025, with above-normal rainfall expected across many regions. According to their weather-forecasting, total rainfall could exceed 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for July, suggesting a wetter-than-usual month for India.
