Forecast for July 2025 in Germany - A Month of Rain and Shelter
In July 2025, Germany experienced a series of unusual weather events, marked by a sharp temperature drop, heavy precipitation, and increased cloud cover, following a prolonged heat wave.
The nationwide low temperature for the month was recorded in Meßstetten on July 10, at a chilly 3.5 degrees Celsius. This sudden change in weather was primarily due to the interaction of a preceding intense heat wave with the arrival of colder air masses and associated convection.
Germany had been under the grip of a strong heat wave from late June into early July, with temperatures exceeding 35 °C and many days above 30 °C since mid-June. This prolonged heat created drought conditions in much of Central Europe, setting the stage for the unusual weather that followed.
Around July 2-3, colder air masses moved in from the north, particularly reaching the Northern Alps by July 3. Ahead of these colder air masses, severe convective thunderstorms developed, especially along the Danube Plain, producing heavy downpours and high rainfall totals. The combination of hot, dry air meeting the incoming cold air triggered unstable weather and cloud cover.
The drought conditions amplified the impact of this weather shift by contributing to forest fires during the heat wave and possibly influencing the severity of convection and rainfall when the colder air arrived. The pattern of temperature extremes followed by abrupt cooling with storm activity is consistent with a dynamic atmospheric scenario involving frontal passages and instability.
Despite the widespread rainfall, the sunshine in July 2025 was particularly hard to come by, except for the Baltic Sea, the north and northeast, and along the Alps. The average temperature in July 2025 in Saxony-Anhalt was 18.8 degrees Celsius, making it particularly warm with a difference of 1.2 degrees compared to the long-term average (17.6 degrees Celsius).
The weather pattern Trog Central Europe caused thunderstorm-like, sometimes severe rain events for almost half of July 2025. It was somewhat drier in the west and parts of the center of the country in July 2025, but still wetter than average. The month of July 2025 in Saxony-Anhalt was the first month since January to be too wet, helping to alleviate the drought.
The low-pressure system Isaac was a significant factor in the heavy rainfall in northeastern Germany in July 2025. Along the Alps, 300 to 400 liters per square meter of rain fell in July 2025, with the highest daily rainfall of 99 liters per square meter recorded in Aschau-Stein on the 28th. In Saxony-Anhalt, 81 liters per square meter of rain fell, exceeding the target of 52 liters per square meter by more than 50%.
The sunshine recorded in July 2025 in Saxony-Anhalt was 189 hours, which is slightly less than the comparison period of 1961 to 1990 (207 hours). The north and northeast of Germany experienced widespread rainfall of 100 to 150 liters per square meter in July 2025. No summer days were recorded nationwide by the end of the first decade in July 2025.
In contrast, the sunshine recorded in the southwest of Germany in July 2025 was over 200 hours. The month of July 2021 had more sunshine (199 hours) than July 2025. Wildfires that were still burning regionally at the beginning of July 2025 in Saxony-Anhalt were brought under control.
The nationwide maximum temperature in July 2025 was 39.3 degrees Celsius, measured on July 2 in Andernach. The average temperature in July 2025 was 18.4 degrees Celsius, exceeding the value of the reference period 1961 to 1990 by 1.5 degrees. July 2025 in Saxony-Anhalt was the only month since January to have more rainfall than the reference period 1961 to 1990.
In summary, the unusual weather patterns in July 2025 in Germany—a sharp temperature drop and heavy precipitation after a prolonged heat wave—were caused by the ingress of colder air masses leading to convective thunderstorms and rainfall over a landscape conditioned by drought and prior heat, generating the observed cloud cover and weather variability.
Other weather-forecasting models might have predicted the sudden temperature drop and the subsequent heavy rainfall in Germany during July 2025, considering the interaction of the preceding intense heat wave with the arrival of colder air masses. The severity of the convective thunderstorms and the high rainfall totals could have been determined more accurately with improved weather-forecasting technology, potentially allowing for better preparedness and mitigation efforts against the rain-induced hazards.
