Breaking: Should Merz Secure Vital Debt Package Approval Tomorrow?
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Tomorrow, Tuesday, faces a nail-biting vote for Friedrich Merz (CDU) in the Bundestag. The old Bundestag, specially reconvened, will decide on the debt package, negotiatied by the Union, SPD, and Greens, aiming to invest billions in infrastructure, climate protection, and defense.
Several constitutional amendments are in the offing, a two-thirds majority, however, is not certain. For a future Union-SPD government with Merz as Chancellor, it is crucial that the plans pass. Both sides see them as essential to maintain financial and political agility in uncertain economic and political times. The negotiations for a new black-red coalition continue in working groups simultaneously.
What's at stake
The legislative package aims to loosen the debt brake in the Basic Law, which, simplified, mandates the federal government and states to manage with their income without additional loans. Due to the weakening economy and the international situation—notably Ukraine—exceptions are now planned: Unlimited loans will be made available for defense spending, civil defense, intelligence services, and cybersecurity, and a 500-billion-euro fund ("special assets") will be created for infrastructure investments (e.g., railways, bridges, roads), financed with loans.
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Climate Neutrality by 2045 in the Basic Law
The Greens, whose support is necessary for the required two-thirds majority, have negotiated that the funds can also be used for additional investments towards achieving climate neutrality by 2045. This is to be incorporated into the Basic Law, Article 143h. Climate neutrality means that no more greenhouse gases are emitted than can be bound.
Critics debate whether the explicit mention of the year 2045 in the Basic Law can be interpreted as a new goal, with potential drawbacks for the economy and new litigation opportunities for environmental organizations. Merz dismissed this claim in ARD, stating the target of 2045 was already agreed upon internationally and formalized in the German Climate Protection Act, while the Federal Constitutional Court has also tasked politics with this goal. It simply provides a purpose for the special assets and not a new goal.
Thriller around the two-thirds majority
It is predicted to be a voting thriller in the Bundestag. The old parliament, reassembled, has 733 members. 489 yes votes are needed for a two-thirds majority. Together, the Union (196), SPD (207), and Greens (117) have 520, which is 31 more than necessary—as per the figures provided by the Bundestag administration to dpa. Merz previously stated that this provides a buffer for absences due to illness. However, this majority is not comfortable. There are dissenters who have earlier signaled they will not vote in favor or will not be present. Merz mentioned, on Monday, that two or three Union MPs would not vote in favor.
In the Green faction, there was one abstention, and one undecided vote in a preliminary vote on the same day, according to reports from participants. SPD faction leader Lars Klingbeil stated on Monday that one of the 207 SPD members is absent due to illness, and there will be one 'no' vote.
Roll-call vote in the Bundestag
Given that many members are no longer part of the new Bundestag, which will hold its first session next week, this might be their last vote. It is not impossible that some may not vote along their faction lines as usual. A roll-call vote will be held, enabling subsequent tracking of each member's vote.
Further attempts to block the Bundestag's decision on Tuesday failed on Monday in Karlsruhe. The Federal Constitutional Court rejected several urgent applications against the planned vote—including ones from AfD, Left, FDP, and the BSW. The court has previously rejected multiple applications against the specially convened special sessions of the old Bundestag on Friday, deeming them baseless.
Next step: Bundesrat
Even if the Bundestag agrees, the matter is not concluded. Constitutional amendments also require clear approval from the federal states: A two-thirds majority is needed in the Bundesrat, which will decide on Friday. 46 out of 69 votes are required. State governments consisting only of CDU, SPD, and Greens have 41 votes.
Together with the six votes from Bavaria, a two-thirds majority would be achieved. In the evening, State Secretary Florian Herrmann (CSU) stated in a joint statement with Free Voter faction leader Florian Streibl in Munich that Bavaria would support it. CSU and Free Voters agreed on this in a coalition committee meeting, despite Free Voters earlier expressing significant reservations.
[1] "Bundestag votes on 500 billion fund for climate, defense and infrastructure", Schwäbisches Tagblatt, March 17, 2025.[2] "Two-thirds majority required for debt package: What's the situation?", Deutsche Welle, March 17, 2025.[3] "Germany's Finance Milestone: Decision on Billion-Euro Package", FAZ, March 17, 2025.
- The employment policy implications of the debt package approval, if successful, could potentially enable Merz to implement infrastructure, climate protection, and defense initiatives more efficiently, as per the community policy agreement between the Union, SPD, and Greens.
- The weakening of the debt brake in the Basic Law, as part of the legislative package, could signify an agreement among legislative bodies to loosen restrictions on federal and state borrowing for specific purposes such as defense, civil defense, intelligence services, cybersecurity, and infrastructure investments.
- Agreements made within working groups continue to be a critical factor in achieving a two-thirds majority, a necessary vote count for the approval of the debt package, and the realization of a potential future Union-SPD government with Merz as Chancellor.
