Following an unusually rainy summer, typical September showers predicted to continue alleviating the ongoing dry spell in Mexico
Mexico has been experiencing a series of weather events that are expected to continue impacting the country, particularly in the Gulf and Atlantic coastal regions, over the coming weeks.
According to the National Meteorological System (SMN), the drought conditions in the country have seen a significant drop. Between July 27 and Aug. 10, the drought conditions dropped by 1.8% compared to the previous 15-day period, with the center, south, and southeast of the country seeing a significant decrease due to the recent rains.
The heavy rainfall on Aug. 10, in particular, was a record-breaker for Mexico City. The storm dumped 84 mm (3.3 in) of rain, the highest amount ever recorded in August in the city. The heavy rainfall caused flooding in several boroughs across Mexico City, including the Zócalo and other areas of the Historic Center, and even led to the suspension of air operations at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) for about four hours.
The Cutzamala System, responsible for supplying water to both Mexico City and the state of México, is currently at over 60%. The precipitation from the Aug. 10 storm has been beneficial to the water supply, alleviating the drought conditions further.
The heavy rainfall has also been a boon for regions that have been suffering from drought. The rainy season has been very active, alleviating drought conditions across the country. In fact, June was the rainiest month ever recorded in Mexico, with a nation-wide average of 155 mm (6.12 in) of rain.
Looking ahead, the weather forecast for the remainder of September 2025 suggests continued above-average temperatures, especially in the western regions, with ongoing heavy rains likely due to tropical cyclone activity. The monsoon has been very active in Sonora, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, and Durango, and this trend is expected to continue.
Regarding tropical cyclones, NOAA forecasts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for the remainder of 2025, with 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes projected. This elevated hurricane activity increases the potential for tropical cyclones affecting Mexico’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts, contributing to heavy rainfall risks in September.
Although some regional climate outlooks predict variable moisture patterns, warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean likely support enhanced tropical storm formation and rain. Therefore, the combination of ongoing heavy rains and an active hurricane season suggests a high chance of intermittent tropical storms or cyclones impacting parts of Mexico through late September.
Local forecasts like those for Mexico City show daily temperature highs in the mid-70s °F (~24°C) currently, but heavier rains and tropical weather impacts are more likely in coastal and southern regions. Residents in potentially affected areas should monitor official updates frequently given the evolving hurricane season conditions.
The National Meteorological System (SMN) has announced that September rains are expected to remain close to the historical average. However, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across much of the country until Sunday. Rainfall begins to decrease in October with the arrival of cold fronts.
It's important to note that only a few very limited regions on the northern border have still experienced persistent drought.
In summary, Mexico is expected to continue experiencing above-average heat in western regions, with highs around 33°C (91-92°F) in September. Heavy rains are also expected, attributed to tropical cyclones and seasonal monsoonal moisture, especially on Gulf and Atlantic coastal areas. The elevated risk of named storms and hurricanes until the end of the month increases the potential for tropical cyclones affecting Mexico’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts, contributing to heavy rains and potentially severe weather.
- The southwest of Mexico is likely to experience above-average temperatures, reaching highs of approximately 33°C (91-92°F), as reported by the National Meteorological System (SMN).
- Despite the ongoing drought in a few limited regions on the northern border, the majority of Mexico has seen a significant decrease in drought conditions, with the center, south, and southeast benefiting from recent rains.
- News of environmental-science interest indicates that the climate-change effects in the country continue to influence the weather patterns, with increased hurricane activity expected in the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean based on the NOAA forecast.
- Local residents in coastal and southern regions are advised to closely follow official updates as the combination of ongoing heavy rains and an active hurricane season suggests a high chance of intermittent tropical storms or cyclones impacting these areas until the end of September.
