Florida and Wisconsin voter turnout offers insights into the current political climate
In a recent wave of off-cycle elections on Tuesday, Democrats demonstrated impressive overperformance, especially in Florida congressional districts and Wisconsin, signifying a potentially strong showing in the 2026 midterm elections. This trend isn't entirely new, and it's rooted in a more engaged Democratic base more prone to vote in these elections.
However, the question remains: Do strong performances in special elections guarantee future electoral success? Not necessarily. Democrats exhibited a string of strong special election results early in Trump's term, followed by resounding wins in the 2018 midterms, only to fall short in the 2024 general election despite overperforming in special elections leading up to November 2024.
To better understand the implications of these results, CNN analyzed 12 House special elections held between the June 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and November 2024, involving solely Democratic and Republican candidates. The analysis revealed an average 10.8-point margin in favor of Democrats, with the Democratic candidates in Florida races registering better-than-average performances.
Special election margins tend to be volatile, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions from the results. But there are some indicators worth watching.
First, the electorate in the Florida districts appeared more Democratic than during the November 2024 election, with a turnout advantage reversing in Escambia County, for instance. This county, which had not voted for a federal Democrat since 2006, was flipped by Democratic candidate Gay Valimont. Wisconsin, despite lacking party registration, showed a more Democratic-leaning electorate.
Second, Tuesday's races had unusually high overall turnout for off-cycle elections. While this isn't necessarily indicative of future results, it does highlight the significance of voter turnout. Democratic success in these special elections seems linked to high turnout levels, reinforcing the importance of effective outreach and mobilization efforts.
Democrats are hoping these results signal a strong showing in the 2026 midterms, while Republicans argue that the Democratic advantage in off-cycle elections may not hold up in higher turnout contests like midterms. But these elections did reveal another warning sign for Republicans - the potential for considerable crossover votes, with Republican voters casting ballots for Democratic candidates.
In Escambia County, Florida, for example, more than 36,000 registered Republicans cast ballots, but the Republican candidate received only 35,829 votes. This suggests that even if the Republican candidate had received no votes from registered Democrats or those with no party affiliation, they would still have lost a few hundred votes. Such shifts in party allegiance can impact election outcomes significantly.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, political strategists will be closely watching these dynamics, seeking to capitalize on emerging trends and mitigate potential disadvantages. Effective messaging, targeted outreach, and facilitating voter turnout will be crucial elements in securing electoral success for both parties.
Certain insights derived from enrichment data are integrated to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to the strong performance of Democrats in off-cycle elections.
- Despite Republican arguments that the Democratic advantage in off-cycle elections may not hold up in higher turnout contests like midterms, the strong performance of Democrats in special elections between June 2022 and November 2024 suggests a potential strong showing for Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
- The analysis of 12 House special elections held during this period revealed an average 10.8-point margin in favor of Democrats, with the Democratic candidates in Florida races registering better-than-average performances.
- The electorate in the Florida districts appeared more Democratic than during the November 2024 election, with a turnout advantage reversing in Escambia County, for instance, suggesting that effective outreach and mobilization efforts could play a significant role in the 2026 midterm elections.
