Five potential resolutions for the Ukraine conflict as indicated by American news outlets
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now entering its eighth year, presents a challenging landscape for Ukraine, according to a recent analysis by CNN. The possible scenarios for the end of the conflict, as outlined by the news outlet, paint a bleak picture for Ukraine's sovereignty, with only one scenario offering a glimmer of hope.
One such scenario, reminiscent of the Soviet model in Afghanistan, suggests Russia may continue to make strategic errors, leading to prolonged conflict and minimal territorial gains. This could result in economic hardship for Russians, potentially exposing Kremlin weaknesses similar to the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. For Ukraine, this scenario remains grim, as none of the outlined options, except one that results in Russia's military defeat, are favourable for Ukrainian sovereignty.
The analysis highlights that a scenario involving Russia's total military defeat would eliminate its threat to European security, but achieving this outcome without NATO's direct intervention seems unlikely. Other scenarios could involve Ukraine suffering due to weak defenses and manpower crises, potentially leading to political disaster and the loss of sovereignty.
Any negotiated peace, such as those involving U.S. efforts and potential Trump-Putin meetings, risks compromising Ukraine’s territorial integrity or security guarantees. The implications for Ukraine in these scenarios range from continued resistance with uncertain success, risk of territorial concessions, to potentially ending up with diminished sovereignty in a peace deal shaped without its full participation.
For Russia, prolonged conflict without strategic gains could deepen economic distress and political instability. Some diplomatic engagements may grant Russia credible security assurances, helping it balance its losses amid ongoing pressures.
In terms of timeline, the most likely course of events is the continuation of active combat actions until at least October 2025. Preliminary talks between Putin and Zelensky are not a prerequisite for the potential Putin-Trump meeting. If negotiations occur and the front line freezes by October, Russian forces may have captured Pokrovsk and Kupiansk.
In the spring, combat actions may resume or Moscow may consolidate its captured territories and raise the issue of the legitimacy of Ukrainian authorities. The least likely scenario is Russia agreeing to an "unconditional ceasefire". Ukraine can maintain its resistance for another two years with the preservation of Western military aid, including the possible deployment of NATO instructors.
However, the loss of American support could leave Ukraine isolated. Escalation of the conflict could lead to a threat to Kyiv in the worst-case scenario for Ukraine. Prolonged conflict could lead to economic difficulties, loss of allies, and a return to traditional opposition from Washington for Russia.
In summary, CNN presents a bleak outlook where most potential endings carry considerable negatives for Ukraine, except for the unlikely scenario of a Russian military defeat which would secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and European security. Russia faces long-term economic strain and possible internal dissent under continued conflict conditions.
