Fight Picks for UFC 317: Topuria versus Oliveira
In the upcoming UFC 317 event, two title fights take centre stage as Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight title and Ilia Topuria defends his lightweight title. One of the intriguing aspects of this event is the round total for the main event between Topuria and Oliveira, which has drawn significant betting interest.
The round total for the main event is set at 1.5 rounds, with over 1.5 rounds having odds of -145 and under 1.5 rounds having odds of 110. However, contextual factors and betting analysis suggest that a higher round total may be more likely.
Charles Oliveira, historically known for his grappling and submission skills, often leads to fights that can go multiple rounds. Meanwhile, Topuria has demonstrated finishing ability but has also had fights that have gone beyond the early rounds. This blend may push some bettors to expect the fight to last more than 1.5 rounds.
The actual outcome of their previous encounter was a knockout win by Topuria over Oliveira, ending the fight early. However, this outcome points to an upset or a less predictable contest, potentially influencing betting odds ahead of the fight in favor of a longer duration given Oliveira’s history of durable and strategic fights.
In the co-main event, Kai Kara-France arguably matches up better than Alexandre Pantoja in multiple categories. Kara-France's significant strike defense is 65%, and he lands an impressive 4.56 significant strikes per minute. His takedown defense rate is 88%, offering a strong defense against Pantoja's takedown rate of 2.74 per 15 minutes.
Kara-France might provide great value as a live dog against Pantoja, with odds of 210 in his favour. The co-main event could potentially come down to takedown success or failure, making Kara-France's potential to keep the fight standing lean in his favour.
For those interested in betting, it's worth noting that the over 1.5 rounds in the main event looks extremely low according to UFC betting sites, given Oliveira’s history of extended fights and Topuria’s finishing power. However, the reasons and statistics suggesting a betting line favoring a higher round total than 1.5 are not explicitly detailed in the available search results.
In summary, betting interest in a higher rounds total than 1.5 likely stems from Oliveira’s typical fight length and technical style matched against Topuria’s power, reflecting a perceived chance the fight could last beyond an early finish despite the eventual knockout outcome. For the co-main event, Kara-France's strong striking and defence could potentially lead to a shorter fight, offering an interesting betting opportunity.
- Consulting the odds provided by various legal betting sites, the under 1.5 rounds bet for the UFC 317 main event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira seems surprisingly low, given their mixed-martial-arts histories, which often result in extended fights.
- In the co-main event of UFC 317, Kai Kara-France's significantly higher strike defense rate and impressive striking accuracy may set the stage for a shorter fight against Alexandre Pantoja, making him an attractive live dog with odds of 210.
- The statistical analysis and contextual factors suggest a potential betting opportunity in the co-main event, where a wager on Kara-France might prove to be a sound decision, given his ability to keep the fight standing and his strong defense against takedowns.
