Fight Night 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Prognostications
In the main event of UFC Fight Night 301 on Saturday night in Rio de Janeiro, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, of Brazil, will defend his title against Australian dark horse Steve Erceg.
Erceg, a relative newcomer to the UFC, has won all three of his fights inside the Octagon to date, but the competition he's faced, including David Dvorak, Alessandro Costa, and Matt Schnell, does not warrant a title shot for the unheralded fighter.
Pantoja, who boasts an impressive 27-5 record, will seek to retain his gold against a less experienced foe. However, the champion must remain vigilant, as Erceg's limited exposure could work to his advantage and catch Pantoja off guard.
Erceg largely relies on grappling and possesses six submission victories, with an 11-fight win streak under his belt. Although he has solid striking abilities, Pantoja, a former Brandon Moreno opponent, is superior in all aspects of mixed martial arts and benefits greatly from his high-level experience.
It's expected that Pantoja will retain his title by decision. If you're placing a wager, consider betting on Pantoja at 1.52 or Pantoja by decision at 3.00.
In the co-main event, MMA legend Jose Aldo returns to the octagon after a two-year retirement to battle rising star Jonathan Martinez in the bantamweight division. The former longtime featherweight champion will attempt to impress in front of his adoring Brazilian fans, but questions remain about his current form and conditioning after a stint in the boxing world.
Martinez has achieved 10 wins in the UFC, claiming a significant scalp against Adrian Yanez in his most recent outing. Martinez excels in striking, particularly in his use of leg kicks, which could pose a problem for the soon-to-be 38-year-old Aldo. The younger and more active Martinez seems poised to outpoint Aldo after 15 minutes of action.
In the featured bout, undefeated Vitor Petrino will look to break into the top 10 at light heavyweight against former title challenger Anthony Smith. Petrino, a Portuguese-speaking Brazilian with a perfect 11-0 record, recently outworked Tyson Pedro and will aim to continue his impressive unbeaten streak.
Smith, a 35-year-old slumping former contender, has struggled in recent fights and may struggle against Petrino's exuberance and explosiveness. Bet on Petrino to earn the win by knockout.
In other notable matchups, Michel Pereira will take on Ihor Potieria in a middleweight contest, with Pereira benefiting from a last-minute replacement for the injured Makhmud Muradov. Potieria's short notice and lack of a full training camp could make him vulnerable against the in-form Pereira, who is on a seven-fight win streak.
Brazilian middleweight Caio Borralho will square off against Paul Craig in the main card opener. Known for his submissions, Craig is battling a three-fight losing streak, while Borralho, a 26-year-old prospect, remains unbeaten in the UFC and will look to extend his record against a struggling opponent.
Quintin Van Jaarsveld, a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year, covers the UFC for several publications.
In the world of sports, rugby might not be the focus of attention right now, but for sports enthusiasts who enjoy betting, another exciting event is approaching: UFC Fight Night 301. Among the fights, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, known for his mastery of mixed martial arts, is not just betting on a victory, but also on demonstrating his superiority against the less experienced Steve Erceg.
