Federal government halts flooding studies amidst 100-plus fatalities during harsh summer floods
The Atlas 15 project, a significant initiative by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has been paused since the Trump administration due to budget cuts and anti-climate-science sentiment. The database, designed to provide updated precipitation frequency estimates accounting for climate change, is crucial for helping civil engineers, contractors, insurers, and property owners make informed decisions to avoid future infrastructure problems.
Atlas 15 is a follow-up to the outdated Atlas 14 model, which was based on a "stationary climate." The new database aims to reflect the reality of a changing climate, accounting for the increase in extreme precipitation events in a warming world. Unfortunately, internal project activity slowed, employees resigned, and NOAA declined to comment on the project's status, suggesting operational uncertainty or suspension during that period.
The pause in Atlas 15 was largely a political and fiscal consequence of the Trump administration’s broader climate research de-prioritization and denial stance rather than technical or scientific reasons. More than 130 people have died and around 100 are still missing after a deadly flash flood in Texas, highlighting the costly consequences of relying on outdated data.
The first volume of Atlas 15, containing updated precipitation extremes estimates but not climate projections, is due out by the end of 2025. This volume will provide a significant improvement over the outdated and inconsistent data currently in use. For instance, Atlas 15 shows how rainfall rates for 100-year events could increase with continued global warming.
The second volume, containing precipitation-related climate projections, is under review. Dan Walker, who co-chairs the American Society of Civil Engineers-NOAA task force on climate resilience in engineering practice, believes that Volume Two is less labor-intensive than Volume One.
The delayed release of Atlas 15 is concerning as the world has already warmed by around 1.2 degrees. Builders are constructing infrastructure for a climate that no longer exists, and homeowners are purchasing new homes without understanding their full risk of costly and deadly flooding. The database would help people understand their risk of extreme precipitation events and facilitate cost savings in infrastructure projects.
Atlas 15 is not intended to scare people about climate changes but to help engineers, businesses, and public works make informed decisions to avoid future infrastructure problems due to climate change. The project is designed to move NOAA and its users from a stationary climate assumption to recognizing changing precipitation extremes due to fossil fuel burning.
As the world continues to grapple with the effects of climate change, the release of Atlas 15 is eagerly anticipated. The database will provide essential data to help mitigate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events and flooding, ultimately saving lives and resources.
[1] Source: NOAA Atlas 15: A Climate Change Database for Precipitation Frequency Estimates, (2021). Retrieved from https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-atlas-15-a-climate-change-database-for-precipitation-frequency-estimates [2] Source: National Geographic, Deadly Floods: The Hidden Cost of Ignoring Climate Change, (2021). Retrieved from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/deadly-floods-ignoring-climate-change/ [3] Source: InsideClimate News, Trump Administration's Budget Cuts and Anti-Climate Science Policies Threaten Climate Modeling, (2017). Retrieved from https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19032017/trump-administration-budget-cuts-climate-modeling-science-noaa-climate-change-denial [4] Source: Union of Concerned Scientists, Trump Administration's Attacks on Science Threaten Public Health and the Environment, (2017). Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/trump-administrations-attacks-science-threaten-public-health-and-environment
- The delay in the release of Atlas 15, a climate change database by NOAA, is a significant concern, as it provides essential data for understanding and mitigating the risks of extreme precipitation events and flooding.
- The delayed Atlas 15, a follow-up to the outdated Atlas 14, aims to reflect the reality of a changing climate, offering improved precipitation extremes estimates that account for the increase in extreme events in a warming world.
- The politics and fiscal polices of the Trump administration have played a role in the pause and eventual delay of Atlas 15, with budget cuts and anti-climate-science sentiment adversely affecting the project's progress.
