Favourites are predicted to win: will they yield profits?
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In the world of sports betting, it can be tempting to put your money on the obvious favourites. However, a strategy focusing solely on these clear favourites may not yield consistent profit in the long run.
The main issue lies in the low odds associated with favourites. For instance, odds of -200 or 1.5 decimal mean that while favourites win more often, the payout size is small. Over time, bookmakers' margins mean bettors rarely achieve profit betting favourites alone.
Moreover, the high volatility and bankroll requirements of this strategy can be prohibitive. Due to the low payoff per bet, bettors must place large wagers or maintain a very large bankroll to overcome variance and be profitable long term. This can be risky and may not be feasible for many bettors.
A more successful approach involves value betting – identifying undervalued odds relative to assessed probabilities. Experts focus on spotting when favourites’ odds offer value rather than blindly backing them. Additionally, line movement analysis can provide valuable insights, as favourites often attract the public’s money, which may inflate their odds unfavorably.
For example, if Brazil's national team is playing against Malta's, and the bookmaker assesses the favourite's chances at 90%, they might express this probability as 95% in the odds. However, in reality, the percentage probability of the favourite winning will be underestimated.
To illustrate, let's consider a hypothetical scenario where the odds for 10 bets made using a certain strategy were 1.1. With a $10 bet on each event and a total of $100 spent on 10 bets, the player would get $88 back, resulting in a loss of $12. On the other hand, if the odds for such bets were 1.6, the player would have made a $28 clean profit over 10 bets.
In conclusion, a strategy centered solely on betting clear favourites is compromised by low odds and the necessity for a very large bankroll to profit – a combination that diminishes expected value and long-term gains. More successful approaches involve value betting and line movement analysis rather than blindly backing favourites. It is advisable to avoid betting using a strategy that may lead to losing the entire bank in the long run.
If you solely bet on sports favourites and analyze the odds carefully, you may realize that a betting strategy focused solely on them may not offer consistent profit in the long run due to low odds and the need for a large bankroll to cover variance. Instead, focusing on value betting, which involves identifying undervalued odds, and line movement analysis, which can offer insights into the public's money inflating odds, may lead to better success in sports-betting.
