Favoritism in Finals MVP predictions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander deemed more probable than Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam
Took it down a notch and added a dash of flavor:
Lights, Camera, MVP:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off clutching the regular-season MVP (RS MVP) and Western Conference finals MVP (WC Finals MVP) trophies, is the odds-on grand slam favorite to snag the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP honors. And the numbers don't lie, with SGA sitting pretty at a comfortable -625 odds, leaving Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton squinting at an unimpressive +700.
Haliburton's teammate, Pascal Siakam, the Eastern Conference finals MVP, lags behind at a paltry +1600. With the OKC Thunder historically backed as lopsided favorites to claim the title (-700 odds), only one player, the legendary Jerry West, has ever bagged the NBA Finals MVP while on the losing team.
Let's take a look at the odds and where SGA could etch his name in NBA Finals MVP history.
Initially, SGA drew behind Jayson Tatum (+800) and tied at +900 with Nikola Jokic and Jaylen Brown for Finals MVP. Jokic opened as an early favorite (+450) for RS MVP, edging out Luka Doncic (+500) and SGA (+650).
But the man’s been on a hot streak since the start, chipping away at statistics, and dominating the league with a whopping 32.7 points per game on 51.9 percent shooting. He easily clinched both the RS MVP voting and the WC Finals MVP unanimously. In these playoffs, he's been averaging nearly 30 points per game, shooting 47.1 percent from the field.
In NBA lore, only ten players have claimed the RS MVP, WC Finals MVP, and NBA Finals MVP honors all in the same season:
- Michael Jordan
- LeBron James
- Larry Bird
- Tim Duncan
- Shaquille O'Neal
- Hakeem Olajuwon
- Magic Johnson
- Moses Malone
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- Willis Reed
If he captured the NBA Finals MVP, SGA would be the first player ever to achieve the RS MVP, WC Finals MVP, and NBA Finals MVP trifecta. But here's the kicker – the Earvin "Magic" Johnson Trophy (West finals MVP) and Larry Bird Trophy (East finals MVP) are relatively new awards, appearing in the 2022 playoffs, making it hard to tell if any player in history could've potentially snagged the three-piece set.
In 2023, Jokic came agonizingly close to clinching the West trophy and the NBA Finals trophy, but Joel Embiid bagged the regular-season MVP award instead.
If the Pacers ain't winning, Haliburton, with his nearly 19 points and 10 assists per game on a 46.6 percent shooting average, is the Pacers' best bet. But his odds are nothing compared to what Siakam is offering. Locked in at +1600, a $100 wager on Siakam would yield a cool $1,600 if the guy who nabbed the Eastern Conference finals MVP award last postseason comes through once more.
Siakam nabbed the EC finals MVP by one vote, thanks to his impressive 24.8 points per game on a crazy-good 52.4 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc.
After Siakam, the odds tumble dramatically, with OKC's Jalen Williams (+3000) and Chet Holmgren (+8000) the only ones not in quintuple-digit odds.
Data source: The New York Times Company
Sports fans are eagerly anticipating the NBA Finals, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the frontrunner for the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP honors. If he successfully secures this award, he would become the first player to win the regular-season MVP, Western Conference finals MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season. Another basketball player to keep an eye on in this competition is Pascal Siakam, the Eastern Conference finals MVP, with odds of +1600 for the NBA Finals MVP.
