Favored significantly in current standing.
In the Conclave, a new Pope is chosen. Bookmakers anticipate a tight race.
The Catholic Church's power dynamics aren't necessarily superior to others. Rumors about Pope Francis' succession surfaced weeks before his demise. Now, it's the decision of the cardinals—all under 80 when he died—to choose his successor. Over a hundred cardinals are disqualified due to age limitations.
About two dozen contenders are viewed as potential Popes, often called "papabile." Given the numerous new cardinals Francis appointed from distant lands, this election might be even more open than previous conclaves.
The ancient saying goes, "Who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves as a cardinal." So, there could be surprises. Yet, on betting platforms, the new Pope is predicted to hail from Italy once more.
Front-Runners
Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
Appointed the Vatican's number two a decade ago, Parolin is the bookies' favorite thanks to his long-standing service. After Francis' election, Parolin became cardinal secretary of state and managed the Vatican's affairs. He's known for his loyalty and is driven by ambition, a trait that helps in the Curia. Parolin would lead the electoral assembly in the Sistine Chapel as the highest-ranking cardinal due to the old dean and his deputy being over 80.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
A strong contender, Tagle, a former archbishop of Manila, has lived in Rome for several years. He became cardinal prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples by Francis in 2019 and is now the pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, one of the most important positions in the Curia. Tagle is considered very promising if the conclave elects an Asian Pope for the first time. He also has Chinese roots and prioritizes a Church that supports the poor, just like Francis.
Long Shots
Other candidates such as Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Matteo Zuppi, Peter Erdő, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Raymond Burke, Jean-Marc Aveline, Jean Claude Hollerich, Mario Grech, and Juan José Omella have outsider chances of becoming the new Pope.
Pizzaballa oversees one of the most challenging dioceses in the world as the Patriarch of Jerusalem. He's known for his role as a bridge-builder amidst Middle Eastern conflicts.
Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, is one of the Vatican's most influential figures. A special envoy for several years, he's been working to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war, though without substantial successes thus far.
Erdő, the conservative Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in Hungary, is well-regarded for his traditional views on church issues. Yet, he's observed Francis' reform efforts critically. Conservatives in the College of Cardinals anticipate a departure from Francis' relatively progressive course with Erdő's support.
Ambongo Besungu, the Archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is often speculated to be the future African Pope. His views on homosexuality and same-sex blessings are less progressive than his European and North American counterparts.
Burke, the American conservative cardinal, was a harsh critic of Francis' predecessor. He's against major changes like the abolition of celibacy or women priests. His chances, however, are considered slim.
Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille born in Algeria, is known for his closeness to the people. He shares this trait with Francis and is sometimes called a "Super-Bergoglianer."
Hollerich, the Archbishop of Luxembourg, is one of the Vatican's most influential men. Serving on several important congregations, he heads the Commission of the Bishops' Conferences of the European Community.
Grech, the General Secretary of the Synod of Bishops, was born on the tiny island of Gozo, Malta. He transformed from a conservative to a reform advocate and is seen as a faithful supporter of Francis' agenda.
Omella, the Archbishop of Barcelona, is recognized for his closeness to the people and promoting social justice. He has dealt with the sexual abuse scandal in the Church as the former chairman of the Spanish Bishops' Conference.
Despite the aforementioned candidates, Robert Prevost has already been elected as Pope Leo XIV. Nevertheless, these contenders were noteworthy prior to his selection.
Economic and social policy discussions in the lead-up to the Conclave might focus on the candidates' stands, as political undertones in the papal election are evident. The world watches as the cardinals, despite age limitations disqualifying over a hundred potential popes, deliberate on the economic and social policy that the Catholic Church will uphold in the future.
The upcoming Pope's stance on political matters, particularly in general-news topics like the Russia-Ukraine war, might influence international relations. Cardinals such as Matteo Zuppi, known for his work as a special envoy, could play a significant role in shaping the Church's political standpoints.
