Union may face the role of junior partner if AfD gains 35% of the vote

Soaring Tensions: Guttenberg's Foreboding Warning on AfD's Ascendancy

The Unsettling Shift in German Politics

Far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains significant traction with 35% support, potentially relegating the Union (CDU/CSU) to a subordinate role.

The political arena in Germany is experiencing a seismic shift, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) rapidly gaining traction in polls, causing ripples of uncertainty among fellow political parties. In a candid interview with Spiegel, former Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg hinted at a possible coalition between the Union parties and the AfD post the next federal election.

According to Guttenberg, the AfD could garner as much as 35% of the vote in the 2029 election, should the current administration fail to address the pressing issues plaguing the nation and regain the public's trust within two years [1]. While he expressed hope that the AfD would not grow to such devastating proportions, he acknowledged the possibility could not be entirely ruled out [1].

The Staggering Stakes of Recent Polls

Current polls place the Union and AfD neck-and-neck, each capturing around 25% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) trails significantly behind with 15%, followed by the Greens (12%) and Die Linke (10%) [1]. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Basic Rights party (BSW) hover at 3% each [1].

Guttenberg's Call for Honesty and Conscription

When asked about the potential reintroduction of conscription, Guttenberg responded affirmatively, emphasizing the need for transparency with the public [1]. He believed that the government should have reconsidered conscription following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, even as early as 2014 [1]. Despite having suspended conscription under his watch, Guttenberg expressed regret over the decision, suggesting that a special fund of 100 billion would have been a more desirable alternative [1].

The Future of German Politics: A Looming Crisis?

With the current government parties combined holding roughly 47.1% of the vote, maintaining power could prove challenging without a significant shift in public sentiment [1]. Many experts predict a complex scenario where traditional coalitions might face obstacles, and new alliances could emerge [3][4]. The AfD's surging popularity raises concerns about the potential destabilization of German politics and could pave the way for a more fragmented parliament [2][5].

The common foreign and security policy of the European Union could be significantly impacted by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) if they manage to secure up to 35% of the vote in the 2029 federal election, as suggested by former Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.
In the recent political landscape, the coalition between the Union parties and the AfD seems like a possibility, as hinted by Guttenberg, which could shift the policy-and-legislation landscape in German politics.
The general news indicates that if current trends persist, the AfD and the Union parties could potentially tie for power in the next election, raising questions about the future stability and coalition structure in German politics post 2029.
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg's call for reinstating conscription stems from his belief that the government should have been more transparent and consider conscription after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, amid concerns of a potential debacle in the common foreign and security policy of the European Union.