Predicting the Future: AfD Gaining Ground in Germany's Political Landscape
Far-right party AfD gains strength, potentially making Union the minority coalition in Germany, according to Guttenberg.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been causing ripples in the German political scene. With gains in various polls, the party is making a mark, potentially becoming a significant force in the next federal election in four years. Former Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg believes the AfD could rally as much as 35% of the votes by 2029 if the current government fails to deliver convincing results in the next two years, casting doubt on the Union's role as a coalition partner.
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a heavyweight in the conservative CDU/CSU, mulls the possibility of an alliance between the Union parties and the AfD after the next federal election. "I don't discount it," he told Der Spiegel. The impending pressure is building up, with the next two critical years shaping the political landscape.
Currently, polling data positions the AfD and Union parties neck-and-neck, each commanding 25% of the votes, while the SPD, Greens, and The Left follow at 15%, 12%, and 10%, respectively. BSW and FDP stand at 3% each.
AfD: The Unlikely Coalition Partner
Historically, the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and The Left have shied away from forming coalitions with the AfD due to its controversial, right-wing, and populist stance. Given this, the likelihood of a coalition between the AfD and the Union parties is low. The CDU/CSU and other mainstream parties have consistently maintained their opposition to collaborating with the AfD, making its role in a governing coalition seem remote.
While the AfD's prospects remain uncertain, the success of the party in former east German states has been a key factor, resonating with voters harboring economic grievances and disenchantment with mainstream parties. However, the party's divisive and polarizing nature may affect its broader coalition-building efforts in the future.
Looking Back: Guttenberg's Political Legacy
Guttenberg was candid in discussing a contentious issue—conscription—and voiced his opinion that conscription should be reinstated if the government was genuinely honest with the public. He expressed regret that the conscription was suspended under his watch during a time when a reconsideration of the decision would have been prudent, especially in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the conscription decision being beyond his control, Guttenberg acknowledges that he would have preferred to embrace a different approach if provided with the opportunity.
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a stalwart of the CDU, continues to be a significant figure in the German political scene, offering valuable insights into the evolving political dynamics in the country. His views on potential alliances and the future of the AfD underscore the growing complexity of coalition-building efforts in the decades to come.
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
- CDU/CSU
- AfD
- German Bundestag
- Federal Government
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a prominent member of the CDU/CSU, has raised the possibility of a coalition between the Union parties and the AfD after the next federal election in 2029, given the current government's lackluster performance.
- If the AfD manages to garner 35% of the votes in 2029, as predicted by Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, it could potentially become a formidable coalition partner in the German Bundestag.
- The controversial and divisive nature of the AfD might limit its coalition-building efforts, as it has historically been shunned by mainstream parties like the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and The Left.
- Despite his controversial stance on conscription, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg remains a significant figure in the German political landscape, offering his unique perspective on the evolving common foreign and security policy and the challenges faced by the Federal Government.
