Graver Jeopardy: Guttenberg Predicts Union Could Yield to AfD at 35% Support
far-right party AfD gains 35% support: Union's potential role as junior coalition partner under scrutiny
In an unsettling forecast, former minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg hinted at a possible collaboration between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) after the next federal election. Guttenberg told Spiegel, "I don't rule it out."
The AfD's growing popularity poses a significant threat to the current political landscape. If the party secures 35% of the votes in the 2029 election, Guttenberg suggestively remarked that the Union could become the junior partner. "Given this 35 percent option, an exclusion in 2029 cannot be ruled out in the background of the then acting protagonists," the CSU politician noted.
Polls currently show the AfD garnering approximately 25%, while the Union parties and the SPD trail behind at 24.5% and 15.4%, respectively [2]. The Green Party (Grüne) and Die Linke (The Left) follow closely at 11.6% and 10%, respectively [2].
Guttenberg's Regrets and Opportunities
When asked about the prospect of reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg stated, "Yes, if one is also honest with the population here." In retrospect, he would have preferred to maintain conscription, especially in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "In the year 2022 and actually already in the year 2014, the decision should have been reconsidered," he added [1].
Suspending conscription under his tenure, Guttenberg defended, was a necessary measure due to financial constraints. "We could no longer afford conscription," he explained. "It was a relatively untroubled announcement by the Federal Chancellor, including the Federal Minister of Finance, that one had to save at any cost."
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg - CDU
- CSU
- AfD
- German Bundestag
- Federal Government
Enrichment Data:
Latest Polls
Current polls place the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany/Christian Social Union in Bavaria) in the lead with approximately 25.7% of the vote. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) follows closely with about 24.5%, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polled at 15.4%, the Green Party (Grüne) at 11.6%, and Die Linke (The Left) at 10%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remain below the 5% threshold with 3.7% and 3.8%, respectively [2].
Potential Coalition Possibilities for Union and AfD
In the current polling environment, it's unlikely that the AfD and CDU/CSU would form a coalition directly. However, with the tight margin between the two parties, they together could control a substantial portion of the seats, especially if other parties fail to meet the 5% threshold or cannot form a viable coalition among themselves [2]. The CDU/CSU typically seeks coalitions with more moderate parties like the FDP or SPD, but such collaborations are challenging based on current polling trends [2][3].
Coalition Challenges
To form a government, any coalition must secure a majority of at least 316 seats out of 630 in the Bundestag [4]. With the CDU/CSU and AfD currently polling at 186 and 177 seats, respectively, they would together exceed the required majority, but their cooperation is improbable due to political differences [2]. The current government parties, including the SPD, Greens, and potentially the FDP, are polling below a majority, making a stable coalition challenging without significant shifts in voter support [2][3].
- The common foreign and security policy is a significant concern in the face of a potential Union-AfD collaboration, as suggested by former minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.
- Guttenberg, a CDU member, warned that the Union parties could become the junior partner if the AfD secures 35% of the votes in the 2029 election, as he hinted at a possible coalition.
- The latest polls indicate a tight race among the German parties, with the CDU/CSU leading at 25.7%, followed by the AfD at 24.5%, making for an intriguing political landscape in the upcoming elections.
- The common foreign and security policy and the future political landscape may face insignificance if the Union and AfD together exceed the required majority but fail to form a viable coalition due to political differences, as mentioned in the potential coalition possibilities for Union and AfD.
