The Future of German Politics: AfD at the Forefront
Far-right party AfD gaining traction with 35% support, potentially making the Union the minority partner in German politics.
Latest surveys suggest a significant shift in German politics with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnering impressive support. In certain polls, the party has surpassed or nearly matched the leading Christian Democratic Union (CDU), signifying a potentially groundbreaking change in the political landscape. For instance, an Ipsos poll from April 2025 places the AfD at 25%, just ahead of the CDU/CSU at 24%. [3][4]
According to Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former economics and defense minister, the AfD could reach an astonishing 35% in the 2029 election if it fails to address pressing issues within two years. However, he expressed hope that the AfD would not grow to such proportions. [1]
Current polls indicate the following approximate party standings:
| Party | Polling % (April 2025) ||----------|-----------------------|| AfD | 25 || CDU/CSU | 24 || SPD | 15 || GRÜNE | 11 || DIE LINKE | 11 || BSW | 5 || FDP | 4 || Others | 5 |
[4]
Potential Union-AfD Coalition
Guttenberg expressed that a coalition with the AfD following the next federal election is a possibility for the Union parties. "I don't rule it out," he told Spiegel. [1] Despite this, a longstanding informal "firewall" between the Union parties and the AfD has so far prevented any formal collaboration. [2][3]
The pressure is mounting, with Guttenberg asserting, "These two years will be decisive. I believe the patience of the people will not last longer than two years." [1]
When asked about reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg said, "Yes, if one is also honest with the population here." He further noted that the decision to suspend conscription could have been reconsidered in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the related governance issues. [1]
Sources:[1] ntv.de, mpa[2] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandmauer[3] https://www.dw.com/en/german-election- odds-afd-strong-chance-of-being-christmas-coalition-poll- suggests/a-61083394[4] Statista, Ipsos, INSA polls (April 2025)
- The growing support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in German politics, as shown in the April 2025 Ipsos poll where the party secured 25%, raises questions about the effectiveness of the common foreign and security policy currently in place.
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former economics and defense minister, predicts that the AfD could reach a daunting 35% in the 2029 election if it fails to adequately address pressing issues within the next two years, potentially eroding the dominance of the common foreign and security policy.
- In the April 2025 polls, the AfD outpaced the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 25% support, compared to the CDU/CSU's 24%, signaling a dramatic shift in the common foreign and security policy landscape.
- Guttenberg's suggestion of a potential coalition between the Union parties and the AfD following the next federal election could signify a significant overhaul in the common foreign and security policy, particularly if the Union parties choose to dismantle the longstanding informal "firewall" between them.
